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Blog

Weather forecasting, detailed weather analysis and climate information

7:00 AM | All eyes focused on the tropics; potential continues for a powerful storm to affect the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US early next week

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, warm, maybe a shower or two, low 70’s for highs

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, mild, some fog and drizzle possible late, mid 50’s

Thursday

Fog and drizzle possible early then becoming partly sunny, warm, near 70

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, low 50’s

Friday

Partly sunny, warm, low 70’s

Saturday

Partly sunny, warm, near 70

Sunday

Mostly cloudy, cooler, showers possible late, low 60’s

Monday

Mostly cloudy, colder, threat for rain and wind, near 50

Discussion

A weak frontal system will slip southward towards the region today and this will help to hold in the clouds and a couple of showers cannot be ruled out. The next few days should feature some sunshine and mild conditions and then we’ll have to turn our attention to the tropics. The potential continues to exist for a major east coast weather event early next week that could, in the worst case scenario, involve hurricane-force winds, torrential rains along low-lying sections and inland higher elevation snows in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US (as per the European model). The best case scenario is that this tropical system will go harmlessly out to sea over the weekend and will not phase with the deep upper level trough headed for the east coast (as per the US GFS model). Stay tuned, it may take another couple of days to have high confidence in this forecast. The main player, Tropical Storm Sandy, continues to intensify just south of the island of Jamaica. The European computer forecast model is generally the best model in the medium range when it comes to east coast storm tracks and the GFS model is now showing some signs of joining it with the more threatening scenario.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/rYtQcR_Lvk8