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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

6:45 AM | Latest Euro model run continues to advertise worst case scenario for Mid-Atlantic

Paul Dorian


The most consistent model of all during this unfolding historic Mid-Atlantic event has been the Euro and its latest run in the overnight hours continues to have the worst case scenario for the Mid-Atlantic region. This run has an amazing (and unprecedented) low pressure system of 947 millibars (27.94 inches) rolling ashore near Cape May, NJ on Monday night. The storm then moves inland quite slowly over the next 24 hours while weakening some to a position not far from the DC metro region by Tuesday night. The main US models are not that different in most respects compared to the Euro with their predicted landfall in a similar time frame and perhaps just a bit up the coast between around central NJ and Long Island, NY.

The result of this path from Sandy, which will be undergoing a transition during this time from a tropical system to a major nor’easter on steroids, is that the entire Mid-Atlantic region from DC to Philly to NYC can expect the following: torrential rains on the order of 5-10” with more in some locations, hurricane force winds with 60-80 wind gusts and even higher amounts closer to the coast, inland and coastal flooding, and widespread power outages with numerous downed limbs and trees. Prepare for these expected power outages with an adequate supply of non-perishable foods, water and batteries. Inland heavy snows are also likely from this monster storm on its southwest flank in higher elevation places like West Virginia, western Virginia, and western Maryland.

The rain and wind gradually increase in intensity in the Mid-Atlantic region later Sunday and Sunday night, and then the brunt of storm is likely later Monday through much of Tuesday. The storm’s effects will unfortunately likely linger for some days to come in the Mid-Atlantic region. Northern, and perhaps even central, New England may be spared the worst of the storm based on this potential “Mid-Atlantic” track.