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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

1:10 PM | Big changes coming to the Mid-Atlantic over the next few days as summer-like pattern becomes kind of winter-like; heavy rainfall, and possible strong storms, to occur during the transition between tonight and the weekend

Paul Dorian

Discussion

To say it doesn't look like beach weather for this upcoming holiday weekend is looking more and more like quite an understatement for the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast US. Big changes are coming to the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US over the next few days as the weather changes from today’s summer-like pattern to one that is actually kind of winter-like - and strong-to-severe thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are likely during the transition between later tonight and the early weekend. Summer-like weather continues today in the Mid-Atlantic region with high humidity and temperatures well up in the 80’s in Philly and DC, and well up in the 70’s across the NYC metro region. This sultry air mass can help to spark some shower and thunderstorm activity later tonight and any storm that forms can be on the strong side. An even better chance for heavy rainfall and strong thunderstorms will occur later tomorrow and tomorrow night as a powerhouse cold front heads to the east coast. In fact, strong-to-severe thunderstorms are likely later tomorrow from New England to the Carolinas associated with this strong frontal system.

Once the cold front reaches the east coast later tomorrow night, a strong upper level low will dig into the Mid-Atlantic region, and this will to cause the frontal system to grind to a halt as a nor’easter-type of coastal storm develops at the same time much chillier air pours into the region. As a result, Friday will turn out to be breezy and much cooler than Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region with lots of clouds and residual showers and, as the coastal storm only slowly pulls away to the northeast, Saturday may also turn out to be quite cloudy, windy and cool with the continued threat for showers; especially, from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey to points north and east to New England. In fact, it's starting to look like a lost weekend for places up the northeastern coast such as in Boston, MA where rain and wind could hang on through Sunday. The colder air mass will actually allow for the possibility for snowflakes to fall in some of the higher elevation (>2000 feet), interior locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US early this weekend (e.g., Adirondacks, Green and White mountains). By Sunday and Monday, strong Canadian high pressure should finally take control of the weather, but temperatures will remain well below normal for this time of year.