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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | **Potential late week atmospheric squeeze play in the Mid-Atlantic region with tropical connections; heavy rain threat exists on Friday into early Saturday**

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast


Mostly sunny, pleasantly warm, highs in the upper 70’s


Increasing clouds, cool, but not as cool as recent nights, lows in the middle 50’s


Mostly cloudy, mild, chance for late day showers, mid-to-upper 70’s

Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, mild, showers likely, low 60’s


Mostly cloudy, humid, occasional showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain can be heavy, mid-to-upper 70’s


Mostly cloudy, warm, humid, occasional morning showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two, some of the rain can be heavy, mid-to-upper 70’s


Partly sunny, warm, humid, slight chance for showers, upper 70’s


Partly sunny, warm, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms, near 80


Canadian high pressure stays in control of the weather here in the Mid-Atlantic region for one more day, but Thursday will become mostly cloudy with higher humidity levels as we transition to quite an unsettled period of weather at the end of the week that will have tropical connections. Moisture associated with a strong storm and frontal system in the central Plains will advance to the eastern states from the middle of the country over the next couple of days at the same time a boat-load of tropical moisture begins to move northeastward along the east coast from the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Low pressure associated with the tropical moisture over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is likely to ride up the east coast late this week as an upper level trough associated with the central Plains low pressure system and front deepens upon its approach to the east coast. The outcome could be an atmospheric squeeze play in the Mid-Atlantic region from Friday into early Saturday with tropical connections resulting in numerous showers and thunderstorms, some of which can be heavy at times. There is still time for changes to the following potential tropical storm track, but my current thinking would take this developing tropical low pressure system to near eastern North Carolina on Friday then to the South Jersey coastline on Friday night before reaching the area just southeast of the Long Island/southern New England coastline by around Saturday morning. This moisture-laden weather pattern could easily bring 1-3 inches of rainfall to the big cities along the I-95 corridor and to points east to the coastline in the Friday/early Saturday time period. The weather settles down for Sunday, but there is more rain likely coming during the first half of next week.