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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

1:30 PM | Next significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday could include some severe weather

Paul Dorian


Another very energetic system is headed to the Mid-Atlantic region and it looks like it will bring a moderate-to-heavy rainfall to the area on Thursday as well as the chance for strong-to-severe thunderstorms. Many ingredients are likely to come together with this system to generate the threat of severe weather from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday to the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday.

To begin with, there will be a strong surface low pressure system moving roughly west-to-east along Route I-80 over the next couple of days from the Ohio Valley on Wednesday to right across Pennsylvania on Thursday. This low pressure system will have some quite unusally low pressure readings associated with it for this time of year. An intensifying upper level trough at 500 millibars will be supporting this surface system by the time it reaches the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday. Furthermore, a couple of jet streaks at different levels in the atmosphere will come together on Thursday in the Mid-Atlantic region to raise the chances for severe weather. One such jet will be in the low levels of the atmosphere (850 millibars) and it will be approaching Pennsylvania from the southwest by Thursday morning with some 60 knot winds. Simultaneously, a strong jet streak in the upper levels of the atmosphere (250 millibars) with winds in excess of 110 knots will be enhancing upward motion in the Mid-Atlantic region come Thursday morning as it crosses New England. Severe weather reports are likely to start rolling in on Wednesday from the Midwest and Ohio Valley with this developing system, and then all of the action shifts to the Mid-Atlantic region in the period from late Wednesday night to Thursday night. Stay tuned as we continue to monitor this upcoming event on Thursday that will feature more significant rain around here and possibly some severe weather.