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Weather forecasting, detailed weather analysis and climate information

2:50 PM | The MJO index and possible tropical troubles in early-to-mid July

Paul Dorian

Discussion

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) index is raising the possibility of tropical troubles in the Atlantic Basin during the early-to-middle part of July and this could ultimately have an impact on the east coast. The MJO index tracks a tropical disturbance that propagates eastward around the global tropics with a cycle on the order of 30-60 days. The MJO has wide ranging impacts on the patterns of tropical and extratropical precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and surface temperatures around the global tropics and subtropics. Research has found that the location of the MJO, or phase, is linked with certain temperature and precipitation patterns around the world. The very latest MJO forecast from the European model propagates the MJO onto the doorstep of phase 2 right around July 4th and studies have shown that phases 2 and 3 tend to favor tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. In fact, the last time the MJO index moved through phases 2 and 3 was in early June and it correlated quite well with Tropical Storm Andrea as it formed and ultimately rode right up the east coast in that time period.