The combination of an intensifying and strong surface low pressure system, a well-established hot and humid air mass, and a potent upper-level disturbance is increasing the chances for severe weather for later this afternoon and evening across the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. Heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are already occurring from central PA to western VA and MD and this activity should affect the I-95 corridor in the period between 4 and 10PM. Torrential rainfall is likely, damaging wind gusts of up to 60 mph or so are possible, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out as this explosive atmospheric scenario unfolds in the late afternoon and evening hours.
The latest mesoanalysis of severe weather indices suggest that the atmosphere is becoming very unstable in this highly populated region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. Wind shear profiles have strengthened a bit and the combination of moderate shear and the unstable atmospheric conditions will present a threat for damaging wind gusts, hail and heavy rainfall. Additionally, the increased wind shear profiles will likely cause enough low-level spin for the possibility of isolated tornadoes late this afternoon and evening. The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue tomorrow, and again this weekend, and right through the middle of next week. One final note, flash flooding is a real threat this evening in any area that experiences torrential rainfall given the already well-saturated grounds.