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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

3:00 PM | Shower threat increases considerably for Saturday night and Sunday and there is even a tropical connection

Paul Dorian


The Mid-Atlantic region has experienced great weather during the past few days, but there are clouds on the horizon and the threat for rain will increase considerably during the second half of the weekend - and there is even a tropical connection to this potential rainfall. While strong high pressure has anchored itself over the northeastern part of the country in recent days providing us with our tranquil weather, the tropics have become quite active with two areas of interest.

One tropical system in the far eastern Atlantic has encountered dry air from the Saharan Desert region of African and it has actually just been downgraded from a tropical storm (named Erin) to a tropical depression in the past few hours. A second tropical system is much more of a concern for the Gulf coastal and southeastern regions of the US and could even have an impact on our weather in the Mid-Atlantic region by the latter part of the weekend. This particular system has now crossed over the Yucatan Peninsula region of Mexico and is now out over the open and warm Gulf of Mexico waters heading in a general northwest direction. Some intensification is likely over the next 24 hours as it encounters a more favorable environment for strengthening, but whether it becomes a named tropical storm it will throw a lot of moisture in the Gulf coastal region and the southeastern part of the country. Some of the moisture will then head northward up the east coast and showers are quite likely across the DC and Philly metro regions, Delmarva Peninsula and southern/central New Jersey - and probably as far north as NYC. The combination of clouds and potential showers will keep temperatures at cooler-than-normal levels on Sunday with 70’s likely for highs in much of the Mid-Atlantic region - even as far south as DC.