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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

12:00 PM | Potential east coast storm early next week with tropical connections

Paul Dorian


There is potential for an east coast storm early next week that would have tropical connections and possible significant rains for the Mid-Atlantic region. Tropical moisture is in abundance today from the eastern Pacific Ocean to the western Caribbean Sea and signs are that this may consolidate into an area of low pressure this weekend over the Gulf of Mexico and then ride up the east coast early next week. This copious tropical moisture is associated with three different tropical systems: Tropical Depression Manuel along the west coast of Mexico, the remains of Hurricane Ingrid in eastern Mexico, and a tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean/Yucatan Peninsula region which could become Tropical Storm Jerry.

Last night's computer forecast models tend to differ somewhat for a potential east coast storm. The 00Z GFS model (NOAA) does bring a soaking storm into the Southeast US early next week, but it then shifts it off the coast in time to spare the I-95 corridor between DC and NYC with much wind and rain. The 00Z European computer forecast model, however, brings significant rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic region and it often performs better than the GFS model in the medium range with respect to coastal storms. The difference between the two models appears to be in the handling of the upper level features as the GFS has a less-impressive (but still noticeable) “open” upper level wave early next week whereas the European has a distinct healthy-looking “closed” wave leading to a stronger surface wave that is closer to the Mid-Atlantic coastline (upper level forecast maps below). Stay tuned; morning video focuses on this possible scenario.