It is that time of year again and let the games begin! If the last couple of years have proven anything from a weather point of view it is that accumulating snow in October and early November is not impossible in this part of the country. While there certainly has been some inconsistency among the numerous computer forecast models and it is several days away, an interesting scenario is unfolding for the middle and latter parts of next week that could result in the first accumulating snows in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
A very chilly air mass for this time of year will drop into the Northern Plains early next week anchored by an impressively strong Canadian high pressure system. As is often the case around here in the Mid-Atlantic region during winter storm events, the high pressure system may be the key as to how much precipitation may fall around here later next week and of what form will it be. It appears that this remarkably strong high pressure system will ultimately break into two segments with one part heading southward into the Tennessee Valley and significantly, a second part builds into New England. The result will be an imposing “banana-shaped” high pressure region that will extend from the Midwest to New England and this type of pressure pattern typically can indeed support the funneling of cold air southward into the Mid-Atlantic region from New England. Both the 00Z GFS and European computer forecast models develop this “banana-shaped” high pressure system later next week at the same time a storm forms near the east coast, but exactly where that storm winds up is still to be determined. Stay tuned, everything has to come together for accumulating snow in November in the Mid-Atlantic region (really that holds true for any time of year), but the potential is there for the first time this season. More details on the 00Z computer forecast model runs in today’s video discussion.