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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

1:50 PM | *Heavy rain from tonight through tomorrow night to bring localized flooding to the region; rain will be accompanied by strong winds and possible strong thunderstorms; next week will feature a return to progressively colder conditions and possible snow*

Paul Dorian

NAM

Discussion

The active weather pattern that began with a burst of snow and ice this morning will continue this weekend and heavy rain on the order of 1.5 to 2.5 inches will be the likely result from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. While there will be periods of rain in the overnight hours along the I-95 corridor (some freezing rain and sleet possible as well), the heaviest and steadiest rainfall from this next system will come on Saturday and Saturday night. Not only is heavy rain coming, but winds should get quite strong on Saturday in a southerly direction ahead of a strong frontal system and then stay quite strong behind the front on Sunday out of the northwest. Southerly winds on Saturday will help to boost temperatures to 60 degrees or higher in many I-95 corridor locations. There is also the threat for some strong thunderstorm activity on Saturday and Saturday evening; especially, in southern and eastern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Southern New Jersey, Delmarva Peninsula). Localized flooding is a real threat this weekend given the heavy rainfall and the expected runoff as ground conditions are still quite frozen just below the surface. In addition, ice jams in local rivers and creeks could exacerbate the flooding potential in many areas.

Looking to next week, Monday will be rather calm and uneventful, but the overall active pattern is far from over. Another system is likely to bring rain back into the Mid-Atlantic region on Tuesday and that will be followed by colder air at mid-week which could be accompanied by some snow. Stay tuned.