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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

12:30 PM | ***Several inches of snow on the table for Monday***

Paul Dorian

models CMC

Discussion

A thaw will occur this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a cold frontal passage on Sunday will usher in colder air by Monday. Next week will bring us not one, not two, but three different storm threats and the first one is liable to bring us accumulating snow on Monday.

The US computer forecast models (NAM, GFS) have been holding the Monday storm precipitation shield primarily south of the DC-to-Philly corridor and still have little, if any, in the way of accumulating snow in that region. However, the European and Canadian models have had pretty significant precipitation amounts northward into east-central Pennsylvania. [A model comparison is shown between the NAM, GFS and Canadian for early afternoon Monday. Also shown is the Canadian model forecast for the same time with color-coded precipitation type where blue is snow].

My gut feeling is that several inches of snow is on the table for Monday in Philly and maybe as far south as DC although there can be some precipitation-type issues around the DC metro region and perhaps as far north sa NYC, but they may be on the northern fringes of the precipitation field. A couple of reasons favoring the snow are as follows: 1) the Philly metro region has been a “snow magnet” lately and atmospheric patterns tend to repeat themselves and 2) the US models are probably exhibiting their usual “southeast bias” with respect to east coast storm tracks and my guess is that they’ll shift northward this weekend with regard to the Monday storm precipitation shield.

A second storm threatens the Mid-Atlantic region by mid-week and this one may feature a period of frozen precipitation (ice and/or snow) on Tuesday night before a changeover to plain rain on Wednesday. A third storm threatens the Mid-Atlantic region at the end of the week and this one could bring snow or rain around here Friday night and Saturday. Stay tuned to "thesiweather.com" for updates.

Hang on…February will be a wild ride.