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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

2:00 PM | **Still the threat for several inches of snow on Monday in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC**

Paul Dorian

CMC

Discussion

Despite the thaw this weekend, there is still the good possibility of a snowstorm on Monday with several inches of snow in much of the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-New York City. A cold frontal passage on Sunday will end our brief spell of mild weather and then moisture will ride along the frontal boundary zone into the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday. The US computer forecast models (NAM, GFS) have indeed started moving northward with their precipitation field from their earlier forecasts with little in the way of significant precipitation north of the PA/MD border. The European and Canadian forecast models have had pretty significant precipitation amounts all along and as far north as the NYC metro region.

Still a couple days to go to this event, but here are some of the possibilities (still subject to some revisions). First, the likeliest "bullseye" region for the heaviest snowfall is across northern Maryland, northern Delaware, Philly and all of SE PA, and interior sections of central New Jersey (somewhat similar to the December storm with the “Eagles snow” game). [The District of Columbia may be limited some by mixing issues and the NYC metro region may be limited a tad by being on the northern fringes of the heaviest precipitation amounts]. In the Philly area, the precipitation could begin briefly as rain and/or sleet early Monday, but will then change to snow and be primarily a snow event with several inches likely. In DC, the precipitation will begin as rain and/or sleet early Monday and it could take a while to changeover to snow in the District, but comparatively less time across its northern and western suburbs (e.g. northern Maryland). As a result, the District may end up with “moderate” snow accumulation amounts while its northern and western suburbs get hit quite hard. NYC may have a brief period of rain and/or sleet, but then it should be primarily a snow event up there with several inches possible.

Next week will bring us two additional storms after the Monday event. The second storm looks like it will feature a period of frozen precipitation (ice and/or snow) on Tuesday night then there will be a changeover to plain rain on Wednesday and some of the rain will be heavy. A third storm threatens the Mid-Atlantic region next weekend and it could be quite strong – too early to say with respect to precipitation-type. Both of these storms will have copious amounts of moisture to work with.

All in all, not the best news for all of those freshly-washed cars out there.