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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | ***A major east coast storm threat on Wednesday night and Thursday with the potential for significant snow***

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast

Today

Partly sunny skies, cold, highs in the low 30’s

Tonight

Partly cloudy, very cold, lows in the mid-to-upper teens

Tuesday

Mostly sunny, very cold, upper 20’s

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, very cold, mid-teens

Wednesday

Increasing clouds, cold, snow likely at night, low 30’s

Thursday

Cloudy, cold, snow likely, possibly mixed with ice or rain at times, mid-to-upper 30's

Friday

Partly sunny, cold, near 40

Saturday

Mostly cloudy, cold, upper 30's

Discussion

Our active weather pattern continues this week with the threat for a major east coast storm on Wednesday night and Thursday that could generate significant snow from DC-to-Boston. One of the indications that suggests there will be a major storm along the east coast later this week has to do with what occurred this weekend in the Far East. Some may have heard that Tokyo, Japan had 20 inches of snow - one of their biggest storms in years - and a deep trough of low pressure in the Far East often translates to a deep trough in the eastern US several days later. While a strong storm is likely, some details still have to be ironed out with respect to precipitation-type. The rain/snow line during this storm is likely to start off between the big cities along the I-95 corridor and the coastline and it could back westward into the big cities allowing for snow to mix with sleet and/or rain at times on Thursday which would have an important impact on ultimate snow accumulation amounts. In fact, one factor going against an all-snow event in the big cities is the positioning of the high pressure to the north during this storm time period as it looks like it will move off the Northeast US coastline which will make it more difficult - though not impossible - to stay as all snow in the I-95 corridor. Another still-to-be-resolved detail is the fact that the main US computer forecast model, Global Forecast System (GFS), currently has a storm track quite far off the east coast with minimal impact around here whereas other models have the storm riding right up the east coast with a significant impact on the region. The GFS model is probably exhibiting its usual "southeast" bias in east coast storm tracks and will likely pull the storm closer to the east coast as the event time nears. Stay tuned, today's video has a detailed breakdown of several different model runs from last night including the GFS, NAM, European and Canadian.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/EYulJLA4aJ8