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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

2:45 PM | *Accumulating snow threat continues for much of the Mid-Atlantic region with the highest amounts expected in southern sections*

Paul Dorian


There are quite a few similarities between this upcoming event and the storm system that affected the Mid-Atlantic region earlier this month. That storm which occurred on March 3rd resulted in 4 to 8 inches of snow on average in the region between DC and the southern New Jersey Shore, 3.4 inches in South Philly at the airport, but very little in the Philly suburbs and virtually no snow in the New York City metro region. In both cases, a strong Arctic high pressure system pushed in from the north with very cold, dry, dense low-level Arctic air. Additionally, in both cases the main area for accumulating snow was gradually suppressed to the south by the computer forecast models as the event time approached. Finally, there was a pretty sharp cutoff to the snowfall accumulations on the northern edge on March 3rd and that scenario appears to be setting up for this time as well.

The ultimate result of all of this is that the highest snowfall amounts coming during the late Sunday/Monday time period appear to be headed for the same region between DC and the southern New Jersey Shore. While the Philly metro region is still in the ball park for some accumulations, the New York City metro region will likely be on the extreme northern fringes. Any precipitation that falls north of the PA/MD border should be virtually all snow and, while there can be an initial period of rain or sleet in the area between DC and New Jersey, the vast majority of the precipitation should be in the form of snow in that region as well. Here is the latest thinking on snow accumulations for the period of late Sunday into early Monday:

NYC: on the northern edge, anywhere from a coating to an inch or so PHL: 1-4 inches is possible with the higher amounts in southern parts of the area (e.g., southern Chester County) DC to the southern Jersey Shore: 4-8 inches is on the table for this “southern-most” section of the Mid-Atlantic with the highest amounts to the south and west of the District

Stay tuned for any possible further updates, a small shift can still make a big difference.