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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

3:25 PM | Warm air surge at the end of the week does not signal a longer-term trend of warmer-than-normal weather in the Mid-Atlantic region

Paul Dorian

GFS_temp_trend[map courtesy WeatherBell Analytics]

Discussion

A warm front will advance northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic region tomorrow night and warm air should surge into the DC metro region on Thursday following the frontal passage. The warm air, however, only grudgingly continues its northeastward expansion after that and this will result in a shorter period of warm weather as one heads farther and farther to the northeast. Temperatures in DC should reach 80+ degrees on Thursday, Friday and Saturday; Philly should approach 80 degrees on Friday (although this is still not a guarantee for Friday) and also on Saturday; New York City should climb to the mid-to-upper 70’s on Saturday following another day in the 60’s on Friday. The transition to the warm weather will be accompanied by showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday Night/Thursday and there can be additional showers and storms on Friday and Saturday as well in the Mid-Atlantic region.

The surge of warmth that arrives by the end of the week in the I-95 corridor does not look like it will signal a prolonged period of above-normal temperatures for the region. In fact, the latest 12Z GFS computer forecast model run suggests that a warmer-than-normal 5-day period from May 7-12th will be followed by a colder-than-normal period of weather in the eastern US from May 14-May 19th (map courtesy WeatherBell Analytics at weatherbell.com).