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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

3:20 PM | "Derecho-look" to the shower/thunderstorm threat around here late tomorrow night/early Thursday

Paul Dorian

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Discussion

Showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are affecting the Mid-Atlantic region this afternoon and will continue to do so this evening, but perhaps an even more impressive threat is headed this way for late Wednesday night and early Thursday. In fact, this next threat has a “derecho-look” to it as an organized area of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms is likely to move hundreds of miles from the middle of the country to the Ohio Valley and then right towards the I-95 corridor. As far as the timetable is concerned, this well organized cluster of showers and thunderstorms will likely affect Iowa/Illinois late tonight and early Wednesday, and then it should reach Ohio and western Pennsylvania late tomorrow and early tomorrow night, and then it will likely make a move right towards the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-New York City late tomorrow night and early Thursday. If indeed this cluster of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms holds together as it moves from the Ohio Valley to the east coast late tomorrow night and early Thursday, the result here could be torrential rainfall with potentially damaging wind gusts. Stay tuned. The 12Z GFS computer model forecast shows quite clearly the heavy precipitation area early Wednesday (map above) and then later Wednesday (map below) as it moves in a general east-to-southeast direction towards the east coast.

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