12:45 PM | **Could be a wild night in the Mid-Atlantic region**

[GFS computer model forecast map at 300 mb for later tonight showing an impressive jet streak and upper level wave]

Discussion

The combination of a vigorous upper level wave, impressive jet streak and developing low pressure will generate a wild scene tonight throughout the Mid-Atlantic region with numerous showers and thunderstorms from early evening through late tonight. Some of the thunderstorms will reach severe limits with torrential rainfall, damaging wind gusts, possible hail and even isolated tornadoes. The greatest chance for severe weather tonight will likely be from the eastern part of the Ohio Valley eastward to the Appalachian Mountains, but severe weather potential exists as well into the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-New York City.

The timetable for the shower and thunderstorm threat is approximately from 8pm to 3am. All of this activity is associated with an usually strong and widespread cold air outbreak for this time of year that will bring spectacular weather to the Mid-Atlantic region from Tuesday through the rest of the week, but we may have to pay a price before we get there.