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Weather forecasting, detailed weather analysis and climate information

7:00 AM | ***Significant rainfall for the Mid-Atlantic region and a weekend hurricane threat***

Paul Dorian

6-Day DC Forecast

Today

Mostly cloudy, muggy, an occasional shower likely, highs in the middle 70's

Tonight

Mostly cloudy, cooler, showers likely, lows in the upper 50’s

Thursday

Cloudy, breezy, cool, periods of rain likely, near 60 degrees

Thursday Night

Cloudy, breezy, cool, periods of rain likely , low 50’s

Friday

Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain likely, near 60 degrees

Saturday

Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain likely, potentially hurricane-like conditions depending on the track of Joaquin, mid 60’s

Sunday

Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain likely, potentially hurricane-like conditions depending on the track of Joaquin, mid 60’s

Monday

Cloudy, windy, cool, periods of rain likely, potentially hurricane-like conditions depending on the track of Joaquin, mid 60’s

Discussion

Tropical Storm Joaquin was in an environment yesterday that featured some vertical wind shear which kept a lid on intensification, but that wind shear relaxed somewhat overnight and strengthening has now brought Joaquin to hurricane status (category 1) with 75 mph winds. It is entirely possible that Hurricane Joaquin reaches category 2 or 3 levels over the next couple of days as it churns over the western Atlantic Ocean in a favorable environment. Quite a serious and complicated weather pattern is unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region with many players on the field and it could all result in very significant rainfall between tomorrow and the end of the weekend and - given the real threat of a hurricane strike - there is the possibility for damaging winds, power outages and beach erosion in coastal areas.

A strong cold front is slowly pushing through the region at this time and it will soon stall out along the east coast. This frontal system generated some heavy rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region, but that is likely just the opening event. Low pressure now situated over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico is then likely to ride up along the stalled out frontal boundary zone generating additional significant rainfall later in the work week. Then, as deep upper-level low sets up in the Southeast US, Hurricane Joaquin is likely to "pin wheel" towards the northwest on a track that could bring it to the Mid-Atlantic coastline over the weekend. All eyes from New Jersey to Virginia should closely monitor this situation. Computer forecast models are not universal in a Mid-Atlantic strike...there is still a scenario that keeps Joaquin out to sea although significant rainfall would still occur in the region. Stay tuned.

Video

httpv://youtu.be/kKRN3c5aszA