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2:20 PM | *Snow threat(s) continue for next week, but questions remain...signs for a return of some bitter cold Arctic air*


Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

2:20 PM | *Snow threat(s) continue for next week, but questions remain...signs for a return of some bitter cold Arctic air*

Paul Dorian

Now that today’s snow event is winding down, it is time to focus on the next few threats for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region.  One storm will push off the Carolina coastline later Sunday into early Monday and it looks like it will stay just far enough off the coast to miss the I-95 corridor region.  However, it is still a little too early to write it off completely as there is still an outside chance that its precipitation shield actually ends up going a bit farther to the north and west than projected – in much the same way as with this morning’s system.  Lets hope this system indeed stays off the coast since it looks like it will become a very powerful storm and if it were to back into the I-95 corridor, it could get pretty ugly.

Another threat for snow will take place in the Monday night-to-Wednesday time period and this one has some real potential – at least for parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US – but some questions still remain and there is no guarantee for anything significant. Beyond that, there actually is a threat for some snow late next week as it appears bitter cold Arctic air will pour into the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US with a clipper-type of system.  This frigid air mass could stick around right through the President's Day (and Valentine's Day) weekend and into the following week.  In fact, zero degrees is on the table with this Arctic blast.  And yes, there are signs for another storm around President's Day (Monday, Feb. 15th) or Tuesday of that following week.  

Buckle up - it could be a wild ride.  

12Z GFS forecast map for Tuesday morning; courtesy, NOAA

12Z GFS forecast map for Tuesday morning; courtesy, NOAA

Some details
By late Sunday, low pressure will rapidly intensify off the Carolina coastline and it’ll most likely stay just to the south and east of here without any impact.  However, there is still some time for this system to push northwest and it bears close watching as it is likely to become a monster storm.  After that, a favorable upper air pattern for east coast storms will unfold early next week with deep upper level trough of low pressure in the eastern US and significant high pressure ridging in the western US.  At the same time this upper level pattern forms, there will be an Arctic outbreak into the northern US.  As the cold upper-level low swings through the Great Lakes region, low pressure will form in the Ohio Valley and by Tuesday this system could induce cyclogenesis near or just east of the Delmarva Peninsula.  If so, this system would probably then ride northeastward up the coastline and impact at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and the Northeast US.    

Questions remain on Monday night-to-Wednesday threat
Several questions, however, still remain at this point regarding next week’s threat.  To begin, the initial location of this potential coastal storm is still in question.  Second, how quickly this potential coastal storm intensifies is still quite uncertain.  Both of these factors are critical; especially, for places like the DC metro region which would likely require a quickly intensifying coastal storm and an initial positioning farther south than the Delmarva Peninsula coastline to get anything significant. If the low pressure forms near the Delmarva Peninsula coastline then the biggest snow threat may end up being in the region from around the Philly metro region to points north and east. All options are still on the table at this point as this event is still about four days out so stay tuned.  
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.