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11:25 AM | *Snow tonight/early Friday…more snow possible Saturday night/early Sunday…explosive warm up next week*

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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

11:25 AM | *Snow tonight/early Friday…more snow possible Saturday night/early Sunday…explosive warm up next week*

Paul Dorian

 Latest visible satellite image of approaching storm system; courtesy NASA, NOAA, Washington Post CWG

Latest visible satellite image of approaching storm system; courtesy NASA, NOAA, Washington Post CWG

Overview
In one of winter's last gasps in the Mid-Atlantic region, there will be not one, but two (relatively minor) snow events that impact the area over the next few days before an explosive warm up next week sends temperatures soaring all across the eastern half of the nation.  Each one of these upcoming snow events can produce “nuisance” accumulations in the immediate I-95 corridor generally ranging from a "coating to 2 or 3 inches".  

 12Z GFS forecast map for Friday morning (blue=snow, green=rain); map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA

12Z GFS forecast map for Friday morning (blue=snow, green=rain); map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA

Snow tonight and Friday morning
Low pressure moving towards the Ohio Valley this afternoon will spread snow into the I-95 corridor later this evening (after 7pm in DC, after 10pm in Philly, NYC) and that snow will continue into Friday morning with some accumulations likely for the early morning commute. The initial Ohio Valley low pressure system will weaken late tonight and transfer its energy to a secondary Mid-Atlantic coastal storm on Friday which will rapidly intensify as it pulls northeastward.  Accumulations in the DC, Philly and NYC metro regions are expected to be in the “coating to 2 or 3 inch” range by mid-day Friday, but an increasingly unlikely slight shift to the northwest in the expected coastal storm track on Friday could increase those metro region accumulation amounts.  Snow amounts can be even higher on Friday closer to the coastline in places like Delaware and New Jersey where 4 or 5 inches can accumulate before ending around mid-day or early afternoon.  The precipitation can begin tonight as a mix of rain and snow; especially, around the DC metro region and places south and east of I-95, but it should then change to all snow shortly following the onset.  
  

 12Z GFS forecast map for Saturday evening (blue=snow, green=rain); map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA 

12Z GFS forecast map for Saturday evening (blue=snow, green=rain); map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA 

Second snow threat from “clipper” 
Relatively cold conditions will continue through the upcoming weekend following the end-of-week snow and there can even be more snow or snow showers in the Mid-Atlantic region during Saturday night and early Sunday morning.  This next snow threat comes from a “clipper” low pressure system (identified on forecast surface map) that will drop southeastward from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley.  This weekend system could bring additional accumulations to the I-95 corridor by early Sunday morning in the same “coating to 2 or 3 inch" range as the initial snow event.  

 12Z GFS forecast map of 2-meter temperature anomalies Wednesday evening; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA

12Z GFS forecast map of 2-meter temperature anomalies Wednesday evening; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA

Major warm up next week
Beyond the weekend, it is off to the races for temperatures across the eastern half of the nation and Northern Plains as explosive warming takes place.  Temperatures could reach the 60’s by Tuesday afternoon in the I-95 corridor from DC-to-Philly-to-New York City and then 70+ degrees is possible later next week.  The warm up won’t come without problems, however, for many parts of the nation.  The south-central US will likely experience tremendous amounts of rainfall next week perhaps reaching a foot or more and there is very likely going to be a widespread severe weather outbreak in the Deep South.  Furthermore, the state of California will get absolutely pounded next week and beyond which could result in a foot of rain in much of the northern half of the state and several feet of snow in the Sierra Mountains.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.