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12:15 PM | ***Active pattern continues…”clipper” late tonight/early Saturday…cold blast Sunday night/Monday to produce powerful and perhaps damaging winds…storm threat later next week***

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12:15 PM | ***Active pattern continues…”clipper” late tonight/early Saturday…cold blast Sunday night/Monday to produce powerful and perhaps damaging winds…storm threat later next week***

Paul Dorian

 12Z GFS surface forecast map for Monday morning with powerful storm off the coast of Maine and very tight pressure gradient across Northeast US which will result in extreme winds; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS surface forecast map for Monday morning with powerful storm off the coast of Maine and very tight pressure gradient across Northeast US which will result in extreme winds; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Overview
One winter storm is now long gone, but the overall weather pattern remains quite active for the Northeast US and there will be lots to monitor over the next week or so.  First, a clipper system dropping southeast from Canada will bring some light snow to the northern Mid-Atlantic region late tonight and early Saturday.  Second, after primarily rain on Sunday in the Mid-Atlantic region, a powerful cold front will whip through the region Sunday night and winds should intensify to quite strong - and potentially damaging levels - on Sunday night and Monday.  Finally, there are some early signals for a storm to form near the east coast later next week which has a lot of potential, but also many questions still to iron out.

Clipper late tonight/early Saturday
A fast-moving clipper system will drop southeast from south-central Canada over the next twelve hours and it’ll likely spread some snow into the northern Mid-Atlantic region. Specifically, the NYC metro region is likely to receive a coating to an inch or two from this system and some light snow could extend all the way down into the northern suburbs of Philly by early tomorrow.  New England – still suffering from the yesterday’s blizzard – is likely to receive more significant snow accumulation from this clipper system as it intensifies rapidly off the New England coastline.

 12Z GFS forecast map for 250 mb winds showing powerful upper-level jet streak aiding in the explosive intensification of low pressure near Maine and extreme winds throughout the Northeast US; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS forecast map for 250 mb winds showing powerful upper-level jet streak aiding in the explosive intensification of low pressure near Maine and extreme winds throughout the Northeast US; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Low pressure on Sunday...cold blast Sunday night/Monday
Another low pressure system will then slide across Pennsylvania on Sunday bringing primarily rain to the Mid-Atlantic region.  There can be a wintry mix for a brief time on Sunday in the far northern suburbs of Philly and in and around the NYC metro region where small snow or ice accumulations are possible.  This low pressure system will then head to a position off the New England coastline by late Sunday night and it will intensify explosively aided by a powerful upper-level jet streak at 250 mb.  As a result, the pressure gradient throughout the Northeast US will tighten significantly and winds will become very powerful on Sunday night and Monday - perhaps even to damaging levels of up to 60 mph - as colder air pours in from the northwest and downed limbs and power outages are a real concern.  Northern New England will likely receive another round of significant snow (and excessive winds) to go on top of yesterday’s blizzard and tomorrow’s expected snowfall with Maine getting especially hard hit.

 12Z (Thursday) Euro forecast map for next Thursday, February 16th, showing deep trough in the eastern US; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z (Thursday) Euro forecast map for next Thursday, February 16th, showing deep trough in the eastern US; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Storm threat later next week
In the more "speculation" phase...the unfolding upper-level pattern in the medium-term is full of potential.  A deep upper-level trough will likely form in the eastern US later next week and this could result in a storm near the east coast in the late Wednesday or Thursday time frame. It is way too early to tell if this potential system would stay too far off the coast to have an impact around here – as is currently suggested by most computer forecast models – or if it’ll come close enough for an important impact.  Bottom line, stay tuned.
 
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com