12:40 PM | *Cold wave hits Europe*
Paul Dorian
Lower atmosphere (850 mb, ~5000 feet) temperature anomaly forecast map for tonight across Europe by the 00Z Euro model; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com
Overview
A cold wave has hit Europe and it looks like much of the continent will stay well below normal right through the rest of the month of April. In addition to the unusual cold, heavy snow accumulations are likely over the next ten days in many higher elevation locations (e.g., Alps) and accumulating snow is probable as far south as southern Italy and Greece.
Lower atmosphere (850 mb, ~5000 feet) temperature anomaly forecast map for Sunday night, April 23rd across Europe by the 00Z Euro model; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com
Details
Much of Europe is currently experiencing temperatures that are some 10-15 degrees (C) below normal for this time of year and it looks like there will be two or three additional cold air outbreaks during the next ten days or so. The temperature anomaly maps from last night’s 00Z European model for the lower atmosphere (850 millibars) suggest reinforcing cold air outbreaks will prevent any sustained return to normalcy for Europe in the near term. Well below normal temperatures are predicted throughout Europe not only for tonight, but also late in the upcoming weekend with the next cold air outbreak, and then again late next week with yet another cold blast.
Lower atmosphere (~5000 feet) temperature anomaly forecast map for Thursday night, April 27th across Europe by the 00Z Euro model; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com
In addition to the cold, snow will accumulate to substantial levels in parts of the Alps where skiing will be quite good going well into the month of May. The 00Z GFS ten-day total snowfall map (below) for Europe has more than two feet of snow in some of the higher elevation locations of central Europe and accumulating snow as far south as southern Italy and Greece.
00Z GFS total snowfall map for the next ten-days across Europe; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC
On occasion, the weather pattern in Europe can be a signal for upcoming weather conditions in the eastern US and while there are cold air outbreaks headed this way over the next couple of weeks, it does not look like they will be quite as widespread or sustained compared to what Europe is experiencing. However, perhaps this is a signal for colder-than-normal weather around here during the month of May - stay tuned.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com