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2:10 PM | *Coastal storm for the I-95 corridor from Friday night into Saturday night*

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Weather forecasting, detailed weather analysis and climate information

2:10 PM | *Coastal storm for the I-95 corridor from Friday night into Saturday night*

Paul Dorian

 12Z GFS forecast map of 500 mb height anomalies on Saturday evening; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS forecast map of 500 mb height anomalies on Saturday evening; map courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Overview
Ingredients are coming together for a significant coastal storm in the Mid-Atlantic region as we begin the Mother’s Day weekend and it is likely to bring a soaking rain to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday into late Saturday.  

 12Z GFS surface forecast map for 2PM Saturday; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS surface forecast map for 2PM Saturday; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

Discussion
On Friday, an upper-level wave of energy will push to the northeast from the Tennessee Valley and low pressure will begin to intensify at the surface.  This system will begin to phase with a northern stream upper-level low on Friday night and Saturday the end result is likely to be quite a storm by late Saturday along the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  

 12Z GFS surface forecast map for 2AM Sunday morning; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS surface forecast map for 2AM Sunday morning; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

A soaking rain will result from the coastal storm and there can be some rain ahead of the storm in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region from Thursday into Friday; especially, south of the PA/MD border.  By the time the weekend comes to an end, 2+ inches of rainfall is likely to accumulate in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  

 12Z GFS total rainfall forecast map for the next five days which is made up of mostly of coastal storm-produced precipitation; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

12Z GFS total rainfall forecast map for the next five days which is made up of mostly of coastal storm-produced precipitation; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com, NOAA/EMC

The strong coastal low is most likely going to move into New England by Sunday and there will be improvement around here for Mother’s Day, but a shower or two cannot be ruled out and it’ll stay on the cool side of normal.  There are prospects, however, for much warmer weather conditions around here during the second half of next week.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Vencore, Inc.
vencoreweather.com