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11:25 AM | *An active weather pattern with a winter-like look will bring us a couple of cold shots and storms in coming days*

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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

11:25 AM | *An active weather pattern with a winter-like look will bring us a couple of cold shots and storms in coming days*

Paul Dorian

Cold shot #1 arrives for the weekend following a rainy Friday; courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com

Cold shot #1 arrives for the weekend following a rainy Friday; courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing during the past several weeks in the Mid-Atlantic region is showing no signs of letting up and will take on a winter-like look in coming days with two cold shots and two storms. The first storm will arrive on Friday with more soaking rain for the already waterlogged DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this system will be followed by a cold shot for the weekend with temperatures way below-normal for this time of year. Another storm is likely to pull out of the Gulf of Mexico region early next week and head right towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and this system will have some cold air in place before its arrival. As a result, while more soaking rain is likely in the immediate I-95 corridor on this storm’s front end in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame, there may be enough entrenched cold air for snow across interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. This second storm system will then usher in a second cold air mass by the middle of next week and as the cold air pours in, there is the chance for a rain-changing-to-snow scenario in some areas.

Storm #1 produces more soaking rain in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Storm #1 produces more soaking rain in the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Details

Drier air has pushed into the Mid-Atlantic region today on the heels of a nighttime frontal passage and we’ll have rain-free conditions both today and Thursday. Temperatures will actually take a step down between this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon with highs later today near 60 degrees and then only reaching the low-to-mid 50’s on Thursday afternoon. By tomorrow evening, moisture will be gathering in the southern US as storm number one gathers strength and then it’ll make a push in our direction.

Cold shot #2 reaches the eastern US by the middle of next week; courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com

Cold shot #2 reaches the eastern US by the middle of next week; courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com

Rain will likely arrive early in the day on Friday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and it could become heavy at times during the afternoon/evening hours. This next soaking rain event will only add to the excessive soil moisture in the region following weeks and weeks of above-normal rainfall. Once this system passes by to our northeast by the early part of the weekend, much colder air will pour in on strong NW winds and high temperatures on both weekend days are likely to be confined to the 40’s in most spots (normal high at PHL is currently 60 degrees, 62 degrees at DCA).

Storm #2 to be followed by cold shot #2; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Storm #2 to be followed by cold shot #2; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

With cold air already in place across the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US, a second low pressure system will gather strength in the Gulf of Mexico during the early part of next week. This storm is likely to contain a lot of moisture and is likely to result in more soaking rain for the immediate I-95 corridor, but with cold air in place, there can be snow on the front end in interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US. Once this storm passes by to our northeast, a second shot of cold air will flood the Mid-Atlantic region by the middle of next week and there may even be a changeover of rain-to-snow in some areas as that next cold air mass arrives.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com 


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