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1:00 PM | **Significant weekend storm threat continues for the east coast**

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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

1:00 PM | **Significant weekend storm threat continues for the east coast**

Paul Dorian

12Z FV3-GFS forecast maps of 500 mb height anomalies for Thursday evening, December 6th with the upper-level low approaching Baja California courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

12Z FV3-GFS forecast maps of 500 mb height anomalies for Thursday evening, December 6th with the upper-level low approaching Baja California courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

A storm will approach the southern part of California later this week and it will then take a southern track from Texas to the Southeast US coastline.  This storm is likely to have a significant impact in the Deep South in terms of rainfall and even the potential for severe weather and it could very well generate significant snowfall along the “Route I-40” states from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina.  After that, it is still unclear as to whether this storm will take a ride up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.

12Z FV3-GFS forecast maps of 500 mb height anomalies for Sunday evening, December 9th with the upper-level low in the Southeast US: courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

12Z FV3-GFS forecast maps of 500 mb height anomalies for Sunday evening, December 9th with the upper-level low in the Southeast US: courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Details

Temperatures have reached the 50’s today in the I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but it’ll turn colder in the overnight hours following the passage of a cold frontal system.  In fact, today is quite likely going to be the mildest day of the week as - once the chill returns later tonight - it looks like it’ll stick around through the rest of the work week and right into the upcoming weekend.  High temperatures are normally around 50 degrees in Philly this time of year and it’ll certainly be below that level later this week after today’s temporary run-up into the 50’s. 

 

12Z FV3-GFS surface forecast map for Sunday morning, December 9th with snow extending northward from North Carolina into Virginia (shown in blue); courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

12Z FV3-GFS surface forecast map for Sunday morning, December 9th with snow extending northward from North Carolina into Virginia (shown in blue); courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

In terms of storminess, the next one of significance to monitor will push towards southern California by Thursday from the eastern Pacific Ocean and low pressure will then likely emerge over Texas on Friday.  From that point, all signs point to a general west-to-east track in this potential strong storm to a position off the Georgia coastline by the early part of the weekend.  Given this track, copious amounts of rain will likely fall from Texas-to-Georgia and there can even be some severe weather to deal with in the Deep South. 

Farther north, along and just to the north of Route I-40, significant accumulating snow may take place from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and the significant snow can extend as far north as southern Virginia over the upcoming weekend.  It is still unclear, however, as to what kind of impact there may be in the I-95 corridor of the Mid-Atlantic region from this system which would be in the Sunday/Monday time frame. While there is a chance this system will simply stay completely to the south of the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, it is certainly too early to write off the possibility of a late weekend winter storm and cold air should be in place and anchored by strong high pressure to the north and west…stay tuned.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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