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12:30 PM | ***Coastal storm to enhance rainfall later this afternoon and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

12:30 PM | ***Coastal storm to enhance rainfall later this afternoon and tonight in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US***

Paul Dorian

High-resolution (HRRR) computer forecast model for the next 18 hours in 1-hr increments featuring the formation of a coastal low over New Jersey; courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

High-resolution (HRRR) computer forecast model for the next 18 hours in 1-hr increments featuring the formation of a coastal low over New Jersey; courtesy NOAA, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview
A low pressure system will form later today along the Delmarva/New Jersey coastal region and it will result in more downpours, gusty winds and perhaps even a period of steady, heavy rain for much of the I-95 corridor.  In recent days, the axis of heaviest rainfall has extended from the Chesapeake Bay/DC metro region to central Pennsylvania, but this coastal low pressure system will bring some heavy rainfall to places farther east such as New Jersey and New York City.

Latest radar loop shows large swath of intense rainfall riding northward along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This area of heavy rain will impact DC, Philly, NYC metro regions and the state of New Jersey later this afternoon and evening.  Courtesy NOAA, College of DuPage

Latest radar loop shows large swath of intense rainfall riding northward along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. This area of heavy rain will impact DC, Philly, NYC metro regions and the state of New Jersey later this afternoon and evening.  Courtesy NOAA, College of DuPage

Details
A large area of intense rain is now moving northeastward over eastern Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula. This particular batch of rain will impact the DC metro region over the next couple of hours; especially, on its eastern side and then arrive in Philly metro area and South Jersey later this afternoon in the form of downpours or even a period of steady, heavy rain. By later this evening, additional heavy showers/storms will impact the DC and Philly metro regions and the steady rain associated with the developing coastal storm will reach the NYC metro region.  In the overnight hours, the coastal low will move into New England and bring with it copious amounts of rainfall for the Northeast US.  

Rainfall estimates for the past 7-days (as of Wednesday morning); courtesy NOAA

Rainfall estimates for the past 7-days (as of Wednesday morning); courtesy NOAA

Grounds are very well saturated in much of the Mid-Atlantic region so this additional soaking rainfall will likely result in renewed flash flooding.  By tomorrow, the overall weather pattern will settle down a bit, but showers and thunderstorms could still form on Thursday and Friday. The weekend is looking pretty decent in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with some sunshine expected on each day.  Looking ahead, more wet weather is quite likely next week in the eastern US as yet another upper-level trough forms over the Midwest and it will act to pump in moisture from the Southeast US…quite a familiar weather pattern to all of us.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com