12:00 PM | ***March to begin with quite an active pattern and multiple shots of snow in the Mid-Atlantic region...perhaps the most important threat will come late Sunday into early Monday***
Winter is not going to give up without a fight despite what the groundhog predicted a few weeks ago. The calendar turns from February to March this Friday and the new month will begin with an active pattern to include additional cold air outbreaks and some snow threats during the next week to ten days. The first threat of snow will take place tomorrow night in the northern part of the Mid-Atlantic region as a “clipper-like” system drops southeastward across the Great Lakes. Another relatively weak system could generate some snow in the DC-to-Philly corridor late Thursday night/early Friday – just as we begin the month of March. A cold air outbreak is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and low pressure may form near the Southeast US coastline right along the cold frontal boundary zone. This could very well turn into the most important threat of all for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region as signs point to a northward push of moisture along the east coast late Sunday into Monday with fresh, cold air in place. Finally, as a vigorous wave of upper-level energy drops into the Great Lakes region early next week, the another system could develop near the east coast, but it is certainly too early to say if that will come close enough to the Mid-Atlantic to produce snow.
Several waves of energy will trek across the country during the next week to ten days or so bringing threats of rain and snow to the Mid-Atlantic region. One wave of energy will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes region on Wednesday and it can produce some snow or snow shower activity in the northern Mid-Atlantic tomorrow night. It appears this first chance of snow will be confined to an area generally bounded on the south by the northern suburbs of Philly (e.g., Bucks County) and there can be a small accumulation in the NYC metro region.
The next chance of snow for the Mid-Atlantic region will come late in the week as weak low pressure heads our way from the Midwest. The air mass is likely to be just cold enough to support some snow in the DC-to-Philly corridor late Thursday night/early Friday although rain and/or sleet can certainly mix in at times. It is still a bit unclear as to whether this weak system will push far enough to the northeast to result in snow in NYC and points north and east of there. Following this system, it’ll likely turn slightly milder on Saturday with some rain possible, but a strong cold front will be approaching from the northwest. This front is likely to usher colder air into the region on Sunday – an air mass that is well below normal for the early part of March and then the frontal boundary zone will line up along the eastern seaboard and perhaps set the stage for the most important snow threat of all.
As the colder air arrives on Sunday, there will be plenty of moisture in the form of snow over the central part of the nation and along the southeast US coastline. Low pressure is likely to form in the Southeast US by later Sunday/early Monday along the frontal boundary zone and this could result in a lot of moisture riding northward up along the east coast and right into the Mid-Atlantic region with snow the likely precipitation type. Finally, a vigorous wave of upper-level energy will drop southeastward across the Great Lakes during the early part of next week and this could help to generate low pressure near the east coast in the late Tuesday time frame that may come close enough to result in another snow threat for at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic as cold air should be firmly in place.
Stay tuned…it’s going to be quite an active beginning to the month of March.
Meteorologist Paul Dorian