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12:00 PM (Saturday) | *****Late weekend storm to have a big impact in the Mid-Atlantic region...heavy snowfall in the northern and western suburbs along I-95*****

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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

12:00 PM (Saturday) | *****Late weekend storm to have a big impact in the Mid-Atlantic region...heavy snowfall in the northern and western suburbs along I-95*****

Paul Dorian

Arctic cold will grip the nation for the first full week of March; courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com

Arctic cold will grip the nation for the first full week of March; courtesy ECMWF, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

March has begun like a lion with cold and an active pattern and there is one more storm to deal with before an Arctic blast arrives and this storm may have the biggest impact of all.  Storm #1 brought accumulating snow to much of the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday night, storm #2 brought snow and ice to many areas on Friday night, and the next storm is likely to begin on Sunday afternoon with the most potential of all as it will be loaded with moisture. The immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is going to be the “battle zone” region with significant snow accumulations to the north and west and mainly rain to the south and east.

12Z GFS forecast map for Sunday evening featuring a “battle zone” in the I-95 corridor between snow (in blue) and rain (in green); courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

12Z GFS forecast map for Sunday evening featuring a “battle zone” in the I-95 corridor between snow (in blue) and rain (in green); courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Sunday afternoon into early Monday

Of all three of the systems that we have been monitoring in recent days, the one with the most potential arrives in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday afternoon.   By early Sunday, there will be a widespread area of precipitation extending from the Rockies into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys and it will be headed right towards the Mid-Atlantic region. In fact, precipitation can break out during the early-to-mid afternoon hours on Sunday and then continue at a pretty good clip right through Sunday night as strong low pressure pushes towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  The immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is liable to be the “battle zone” region with significant accumulating snow to the north and west and mainly rain as one gets closer to the coast. At the onset, the precipitation is likely to be in the form of snow north of the PA/MD border and either snow or a wintry mix south of there, but in all areas, any wintry mix at the onset will changeover to all snow.

12Z GFS forecast map for Monday morning featuring a strong low pressure system off the southern New England coastline; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

12Z GFS forecast map for Monday morning featuring a strong low pressure system off the southern New England coastline; courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Preliminary snowfall estimates:

DC region:      2-4 inches in the northern and western suburbs, 1-3 inches in the District

Philly region:   4-8 inches in the northern and western suburbs, 2-4 inches in the city of Philadelphia

NYC region:   4-8 inches

Note - a small shift in the storm track can make a big difference in the snow accumulations so stay tuned.

Total snowfall forecast map by the 12Z Euro as of midday Monday, March 4; courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com

Total snowfall forecast map by the 12Z Euro as of midday Monday, March 4; courtesy ECMWF, weathermodels.com

One final note, following the storm, Arctic air will flood the eastern half of the nation and the first full week of March will be well below-normal from the Rockies to the New England coast to the Gulf coast.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com