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12:45 PM | ***Significant weather event next few days to include heavy rain and severe thunderstorms***

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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

12:45 PM | ***Significant weather event next few days to include heavy rain and severe thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

One of the main culprits behind the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat is deep upper-level low pressure that will intensify over the next couple of days grinding its way from the southern Plains to the east coast. Map courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

One of the main culprits behind the heavy rainfall and severe weather threat is deep upper-level low pressure that will intensify over the next couple of days grinding its way from the southern Plains to the east coast. Map courtesy NOAA/EMC, tropicaltidbits.com

Overview

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next couple of days as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist low-level air will result in a severe weather threat today in the region from Texas-to-Kansas and later tomorrow across Mississippi, Alabama and perhaps as far north as Tennessee.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for large hail and tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the south-central states and then on Thursday across the southeastern US.  Any heavy rainfall can result in localized flooding as much of the eastern half of the nation is experiencing well-saturated ground conditions. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat will reach the eastern seaboard on Friday afternoon and evening with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

Severe weather threat today exists across Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and it will shift eastward on Thursday to Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. The severe weather threat will then shift to the eastern seaboard on Friday as deep upper-level low pressure treks slowly eastward during the next few days. Maps courtesy NOAA/SPC

Severe weather threat today exists across Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and it will shift eastward on Thursday to Mississippi, Alabama and Tennessee. The severe weather threat will then shift to the eastern seaboard on Friday as deep upper-level low pressure treks slowly eastward during the next few days. Maps courtesy NOAA/SPC

Details

Deep upper-level low will pull out of the Southwest US today and into the southern Plains and this system will intensify as it treks across the Deep South on Thursday.  A strong cold front associated with this upper-level feature will grudgingly works its way to the eastern seaboard and this slow movement and strong upper-level support will combine with an influx of tropical moisture to raise the chances for a major rain event in the much of the eastern half of the nation between today and early Saturday as well as the threat for severe weather.  The threat for severe weather including large hail and possible tornadic activity will be greatest today in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas and then will shift slightly to the east on Thursday to Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama.  Along with the severe weather threat, flooding rainfall is possible in these same areas as the upper-level low slowly inches its way to the east.  Grounds are well-saturated in much of the eastern half of the nation and any heavy rain over the next few days can result in flash flooding.

The slow-moving strong system will not only produce severe weather over the next few days, but heavy rainfall is likely in much of the eastern half of the nation. Map courtesy NOAA

The slow-moving strong system will not only produce severe weather over the next few days, but heavy rainfall is likely in much of the eastern half of the nation. Map courtesy NOAA

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift to the eastern US on Friday with severe thunderstorm activity from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.  The greatest chance for torrential rainfall and severe thunderstorm activity in the eastern states will come later Friday and Friday night.  While the steadiest and heaviest rain will end by early Saturday, there can still be some instability showers in the I-95 corridor on Saturday as the upper-level low pressure system will still be positioned to the west of the region.  By Easter Sunday, this upper-level system will finally begin to weaken and it’ll push off to the northeast allowing for some sunshine to return to the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor although a few Easter morning showers cannot be ruled out. High pressure ridging takes control on Monday and temperatures will likely climb well into the 70’s in the I-95 corridor and there should be plenty of sunshine to start the new work week. One final note, it may turn just cold enough on the backside of this system for some snow to fall this weekend in the higher elevation Appalachian Mountains from West Virginia to the western Carolinas.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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