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1:50 PM | *Tropical scene remains very active…tremendous rainfall potential in SE Texas with TS Imelda…Hurricane Humberto could reach “major” status…tropical depression #10 in the central Atlantic*

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1:50 PM | *Tropical scene remains very active…tremendous rainfall potential in SE Texas with TS Imelda…Hurricane Humberto could reach “major” status…tropical depression #10 in the central Atlantic*

Paul Dorian

Tropical Storm Imelda now right near the SE Texas coastline will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in coming days. Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto continues to churn out over the Atlantic Ocean and it may become a cat 3 “major” hurricane in the next day or two. Courtesy NOAA

Tropical Storm Imelda now right near the SE Texas coastline will likely produce tremendous rainfall amounts in coming days. Meanwhile, Hurricane Humberto continues to churn out over the Atlantic Ocean and it may become a cat 3 “major” hurricane in the next day or two. Courtesy NOAA

Overview

In this the climatological peak time of the year for the Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are three systems now on the scene. The most important tropical system in terms of immediate impact is Tropical Storm Imelda which is right near the southeast coastline of Texas. It is likely to produce some tremendous amounts of rainfall over the next few days with 20+ inches on the table.  A second system, Hurricane Humberto, continues to slowly pull away from the US east coast now with category 2 status and it could climb to “major” (category 3+) hurricane status within a day or two out over the Atlantic Ocean.  Finally, a third system is pushing northwest in the central Atlantic and it will continue to slowly intensify in coming days likely requiring it to become a named storm.     

Tremendous rainfall amounts are depicted by the 12Z NAM for SE Texas in coming days with TS Imelda and winds could gust past 40 mph; courtesy Weather Bell Analytics (Joe Bastardi), NOAA

Tremendous rainfall amounts are depicted by the 12Z NAM for SE Texas in coming days with TS Imelda and winds could gust past 40 mph; courtesy Weather Bell Analytics (Joe Bastardi), NOAA

Texas flooding potential with TS Imelda

Just named Tropical Storm Imelda is right near the southeast coastline of Texas and it is showing better organization.  There is a clear circulation pattern in the wind field surrounding this system and there are likely to be some tremendous rainfall amounts in coming days across southeastern Texas.  In fact, some computer forecast models depict 20+ inches of rain over the next few days and flash flood watches are up for this part of Texas.  In addition, winds are likely to get quite strong with gusts past 40 mph in many spots associated with this tropical storm. 

Surface winds show a circulation pattern around TS Imelda now right near the SE Texas coastline; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com (Levi Cowan), NOAA

Surface winds show a circulation pattern around TS Imelda now right near the SE Texas coastline; courtesy tropicaltidbits.com (Levi Cowan), NOAA

Hurricane Humberto

The latest readings for Hurricane Humberto have max sustained winds at 100 mph – category 2 status – and a movement to the ENE at 8 mph.  There is a chance that Humberto strengthens into category 3 (“major”) status over the next couple of days as it continues to churn over very warm waters. The wind field of Humberto has expanded quite a bit in the last 12-24 hours and the central pressure has actually dropped some 18 millibars from mid-day Monday now down to 961 millibars. Humberto may move to a position to the northwest of Bermuda in 36 hours or so and with its expanded wind field, the chance for near hurricane force gusts on the island have increased markedly.

TD #10 has formed over the central Atlantic and is moving on a WNW track as it slowly intensifies. Courtesy NOAA, PSU ewall

TD #10 has formed over the central Atlantic and is moving on a WNW track as it slowly intensifies. Courtesy NOAA, PSU ewall

Tropical depression ten

A third system on the Atlantic Basin tropical scene has slowly intensified in recent days as it moves to the west-northwest now with sustained winds of 35 mph.  It is quite likely to intensify enough to require a name over the next couple of days as it moves over increasingly warm waters and encounters more favorable upper-atmospheric conditions.  In about 3 days or so, this system should get rather close to the northern Leeward Islands and could very well come close to the Bahamas Islands in subsequent days. 

Stay tuned…an active pattern is likely to continue in the Atlantic Basin as we progress through September and into the month of October.

Meteorologist Paul Dorian
Perspecta, Inc.
perspectaweather.com

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