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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

12:40 PM | *An impact on the Mid-Atlantic region by the remains of Florence*

Paul Dorian

The remnants of Florence are centered over the Ohio Valley at mid-day and showers and thunderstorms are wrapping around the system and now impacting much of the Mid-Atlantic region.  The threat for occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue in the I-95 corridor into the early part of tomorrow night when a frontal system will finally clear things out.  Some of the rain will be heavy at times and some of the storms can be on the strong side.  In fact, accelerating tropical systems of this nature sometimes generate tornadic-producing thunderstorms on its east side so that may also become a threat over the next 24-36 hours.

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11:50 AM (Friday) | **Hurricane Florence has nearly grinded to a halt**

Paul Dorian

Florence made landfall earlier today near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it has nearly grinded to a halt in recent hours with movement of only 3 mph to the west-southwest. This extremely slow movement of Florence will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than two feet of rain by the time all is said and done. Florence will push inland on Saturday and cross over the state of South Carolina in a weakened state and then begin a looping process on Sunday. This looping process will begin with an acceleration to the northwest by early next week and then an even more rapid movement to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this potential break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and during part of the month of October.

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12:30 PM | **Hurricane Florence closing in on the Carolinas…the “slowing down” process has begun and Florence will painfully crawl down the Carolina coastline**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence continues to close in on the Carolina coastline and it will arrive in the NC/SC border region on Friday. Hurricane Florence has weakened during the past 24 hours and is now rated as a category 2 storm. The “slowing down” process of Florence has begun and the hurricane will grind nearly to a halt when it reaches the coastline and painfully crawl along to the southwest during the next couple of days.

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12:00 PM | **Major Hurricane Florence headed towards Carolina coastline where it will grind to a halt**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence remains a category 4 (major) storm at mid-day and is currently moving northwest at 15 mph and is headed for the Carolina coastline. It should arrive near the North and South Carolina border region by early Friday where it will become influenced by blocking upper-level high pressure to the north. As a result, Florence will slow down dramatically and drift southwestward along the Carolina coastline. By the latter part of the weekend, Florence is likely to push inland over South Carolina or Georgia and then eventually loop back around to the east. We may have to deal with Florence until the middle of next week before it likely finally exits off the US east coast - perhaps off of New Jersey.

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8:15 PM (Monday) | **Florence has reached category 4 status and is likely headed for the Carolina coastline…tremendous rainfall amounts to come due to an “atmospheric road block”**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified today from category 2 status this morning to category 4 status this evening. As Florence moves over very warm waters over the next couple of days, it should remain as a “major” hurricane and a climb to category 5 is not out of the question. All signs continue to point to a WNW track for Florence over the next few days with a possible landfall late Thursday/early Friday near the NC/SC border region. Once Florence reaches the Carolinas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric road block” as very strong high pressure ridging is setting up to the north across the northwestern Atlantic and southeastern part of Canada. As a result of the slow down, Florence is likely to generate tremendous amounts of rainfall in the Carolinas and into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic (e.g., Virginia) over an extended period of time.

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5:05 AM (Monday) | **Potential tremendous rainfall amounts from Hurricane Florence as an "atmospheric brick wall" sets up**

Paul Dorian

All eyes are focused on Hurricane Florence as we begin the new week and chances for a major impact on the US east coast continue to grow. Florence is now churning slowly towards the US east coast as a category 2 hurricane and may make a landfall late Thursday somewhere along the Carolina coastline – likely with “major” hurricane status.  Very strong high pressure ridging is now building at upper levels of the atmosphere across southeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic and this will be a key player in the push of Florence towards the east coast over the next few days. In addition, this very strong high pressure ridge will eventually act as an “atmospheric brick wall” for Florence once it reaches the Carolinas and the brakes will be put on any attempt at a northward advance by the storm. This eventual slow down in the northward advance of Florence will allow for an extended period of heavy rainfall and the result could be tremendous rainfall amounts in the Carolinas and perhaps into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.

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12:50 PM Friday | *Tropical Storm Florence to return to “major” hurricane status and remains a serious threat to the east coast…significant rainfall next few days from Gordon and frontal system*

Paul Dorian

Florence was downgraded in the overnight hours to “tropical storm” status, but it is quite likely to return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) in coming days.  The evolving upper-level weather pattern will allow for Florence to head westward towards the US east coast over the next several days and it could have a significant impact during the latter part of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon is currently drifting slowly to the north over Arkansas and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall through early next week extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic region.  In addition, there are two other tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic that are very likely to intensify to hurricane level in coming days.  The first of these trailing systems is likely to head on a “southern” track taking it towards the Caribbean Sea and there is a chance that the last system of the four will curve northward to the open Atlantic.

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1:00 PM | *Hurricane Florence remains a threat to the US east coast for the mid-to-latter part of next week…the remains of Gordon to contribute to a swath of heavy rainfall in the near-term*

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence continues to churn slowly to the northwest over the central Atlantic and it remains a threat to the US east coast.  Tropical Depression Gordon has nearly grinded to a halt over the south-central US and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall over the next several days extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic. And if that isn’t enough, there is a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has an excellent chance of intensifying in coming days as it likely takes a more “southern” track compared to Florence.

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11:25 AM | *Hurricane Florence remains a threat to the US east coast for mid-to-late next week…the remains of Gordon to contribute to a swath of heavy rainfall*

Paul Dorian

The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form.  Tropical Storm Gordon came ashore overnight in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi border region and is now well inland over the central part of Mississippi.  While Gordon has been downgraded to tropical depression status, it is likely to contribute to an extended swath of heavy rainfall in coming days.  Meanwhile, Florence has intensified into major hurricane (category 3) status out over the central Atlantic.  There is still a chance that Florence gets “captured” by an eastward-moving upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend over the north Atlantic, but odds favor it being “left behind”.  If indeed Florence is not “captured” by the trough this weekend then strong and expanding high pressure ridging to the north early next week could very well steer it westward towards the US east coast. Any potential impact on the US east coast by Hurricane Florence would likely come during the middle or latter part of next week.

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12:45 PM | *Tropical Storm Gordon should make landfall late tonight in the north-central Gulf…Florence is now a hurricane and it is still a concern for the US east coast*

Paul Dorian

The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. There are currently three tropical systems to monitor and other systems are likely to form in coming days.  Tropical Storm Gordon is heading towards the Mississippi/Louisiana border region and is likely to make landfall there late tonight.  Florence has just reached hurricane status and it is moving on a WNW track out over the open central Atlantic. There is a chance that Florence gets "captured" by a eastward-moving trough this weekend; however, if it is left behind then the evolving pattern could become quite threatening for the US east coast. Yet another system trails Florence relatively close to Africa’s west coast and it will also likely become a concern in coming days.

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