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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

12:15 PM | *Shower/thunderstorm threat later today/early tonight…”clipper” system can produce some snow late Sunday night/early Monday*

Paul Dorian

Unseasonably mild conditions today across the Mid-Atlantic region ahead of a strong cold front which will usher in much colder air for the weekend.  As the front arrives later today, the threat for showers will increase and there can be a few strong thunderstorms mixed in; especially, along of and to the east of the I-95 corridor.  After a cold, dry weekend, a fast-moving “clipper” system will drop southeastward and into the Mid-Atlantic region late Sunday night/early Monday and it can produce some snow in the region extending from DC-to-southern NJ on the south side to southern PA on the north side including the Philly area – perhaps even small accumulations in some areas.

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1:15 PM | **Powerhouse storm in nation’s midsection at mid-week**

Paul Dorian

All the ingredients are coming together for a powerful storm system to be located in the middle of the country at mid-week.  This storm will have wide ranging impacts from heavy snow to its north and west and potential severe weather in its warm sector to the south and east of the low pressure center along with hurricane-force winds.  The central pressure of this storm system is likely to bottom out near 972 mb (28.70 inches) late Wednesday which could very well set some low pressure records in that part of the country.

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1:20 PM | **Some accumulating snow on Friday in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region…frozen precipitation a possibility late Saturday evening in areas north of the PA/MD border**

Paul Dorian

Arctic cold continues to have a grip on the Mid-Atlantic region and weak low pressure on Friday is likely to result in a mainly snow event for most areas and small accumulations are possible.  Snow is likely to break out on Friday during the mid-day or early afternoon hours in the DC metro region and the early-to-mid afternoon hours in Philly as low pressure pushes towards the North Carolina/Virginia coastline.  The NYC metro region may escape with little, if any, snowfall from this weak system on Friday. A more important storm with more available moisture will generate precipitation in the Mid-Atlantic region late Saturday evening and it can be just cold enough at the onset in areas north of the PA/MD border for a period of freezing rain, sleet and/or snow before an ultimate changeover to plain rain.  This same system will produce a major snowstorm in the Northern Plains on Saturday and possibly another severe weather outbreak in the Mississippi Valley. Later Sunday, temperatures can climb to 60 degrees in DC, 55 degrees in Philly, and 50 degrees in NYC ahead of a strong cold front which will usher in colder air for the early part of next week.

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11:15 AM | **Snow showers possible later today in the I-95 corridor…snow threat continues for Friday**

Paul Dorian

A widespread outbreak of Arctic air continues to grip the nation and today may feel the worst in the Mid-Atlantic region as strong winds will produce wind chill values in the single digits at times.  In addition to the unusual cold and wind, instability in the upper atmosphere is already generating snow shower activity in upstate Pennsylvania and New York and some of these can make it into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later today with an isolated snow squall even possible.  The next low pressure system to monitor will trek across the nation over the next 48 hours and reach the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Snow may break out in the I-95 corridor during the mid-day or afternoon hours on Friday and there can be some small accumulations from this system.  Another system will bring mainly rain to the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday, but it may be cold enough at the onset for sleet and/or freezing rain in some interior higher elevation locations.

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11:40 AM | **Impressive Arctic cold for early March across much of the nation**

Paul Dorian

A widespread outbreak of Arctic air has encompassed much of the nation and it will actually get worse in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US before it gets any better.  Record or near record low temperatures extended across much of the nation both this morning and yesterday morning and there will no doubt be more record-breaking cold over the next couple of mornings.  The next threat for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region comes on Friday, but it currently does not look like a significant event.

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9:00 AM (Sunday) | *****Winter storm gets underway shortly in the Mid-Atlantic region and generates significant snowfall in many suburban locations…widespread Arctic cold to follow*****

Paul Dorian

A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region from this afternoon into early Monday morning. Low pressure will intensify as it takes a track towards the southeastern Virginia coastline by later tonight and then it moves quite rapidly to a position off the southern New England coastline by early Monday. Significant snow accumulations are likely in many northern and western suburbs along I-95; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border.  An Arctic air mass will flood the eastern half of the nation following the storm with way below-normal temperatures for the first full week of March.

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12:15 PM (Friday) | ****Next wintry storm arrives tonight…third storm arrives on Sunday afternoon and has the potential for a major impact and significant snow…Arctic cold to follow****

Paul Dorian

March has begun more like a lion than a lamb and there are two more storms to deal with over the next few days which can bring additional accumulating snow and ice to the Mid-Atlantic region.  Storm #1 brought accumulating snow to the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and is now pushing off the coastline, but there will be no clearing behind it.  In fact, storm #2 is already gathering strength in the Southeast US and its precipitation shield will expand noticeably later today as it gets invigorated by an upper-level wave of energy. This next storm can start as a wintry mix tonight and a transition to all snow is possible in the overnight hours; especially, to the north and west of I-95.

Storm #3 arrives on Sunday afternoon and has the greatest potential of all for a significant impact as it will be loaded with moisture.  The immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is liable to be the “battle zone” region with significant snow accumulations possible to the north and west and mainly rain to the south and east. There is the potential for 6+ inches of snow to the north and west of Philly and NYC and perhaps even as far south as the far northern and western suburbs of DC - but some details still have to be ironed out.  All of this activity will be followed by an Arctic outbreak for next week across much of the nation.

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12:00 PM | ***March to begin with accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic…precipitation threat resumes later Fri. into early Sat.…significant rain, sleet and/or snow likely later Sun. into early Mon.***

Paul Dorian

March is going to begin with some accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic region and it could have an impact on the Friday morning commute in the DC, Philly metro regions.  Low pressure will push towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline in the overnight hours and snow is likely to break out around or shortly after midnight in the DC-to-Philly corridor and it can be mixed with sleet and/or freezing rain at times; especially, south of the PA/MD border.  That low pressure system hangs around the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Friday and gets energized late in the day as upper-level energy passes overhead and this can lead to more rain, sleet and/or snow from late Friday into early Saturday including additional accumulations in some areas.  Yet another wintry precipitation event is likely headed to the Mid-Atlantic region for later Sunday into early Monday. The late weekend system will have plenty of available moisture to it; consequently, lots of potential, but it is unclear as to where the all-important rain/snow line may set up. 

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12:15 PM | **March to come in like a lion…a cold lion…much of the nation to be colder-than-normal next week…snow threat in Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night/early Friday...another threat late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

March may come in like a lion…a cold lion…as about 2/3rds of the nation will be well below normal for early March with the cold wave extending from the Rockies to the New England coastline and to the Gulf coast.  In addition, the calendar turn from February to March will be accompanied by an active weather pattern with multiple waves of energy and an accumulating snow threat in the I-95 corridor late tomorrow night/early Friday and another wintry event possible late in the weekend.

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12:00 PM | ***March to begin with quite an active pattern and multiple shots of snow in the Mid-Atlantic region...perhaps the most important threat will come late Sunday into early Monday***

Paul Dorian

Winter is not going to give up without a fight despite what the groundhog predicted a few weeks ago.  The calendar turns from February to March this Friday and the new month will begin with an active pattern to include additional cold air outbreaks and some snow threats during the next week to ten days. The first threat of snow will take place tomorrow night in the northern part of the Mid-Atlantic region as a “clipper-like” system drops southeastward across the Great Lakes.  Another relatively weak system could generate some snow in the DC-to-Philly corridor late Thursday night/early Friday – just as we begin the month of March.  A cold air outbreak is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and low pressure may form near the Southeast US coastline right along the cold frontal boundary zone. This could very well turn into the most important threat of all for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region as signs point to a northward push of moisture along the east coast late Sunday into Monday with fresh, cold air in place. Finally, as a vigorous wave of upper-level energy drops into the Great Lakes region early next week, the another system could develop near the east coast, but it is certainly too early to say if that will come close enough to the Mid-Atlantic to produce snow.

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