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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: NYC

7:00 AM | *Monitoring coastal storm threat for the weekend*

Paul Dorian

A cold frontal system will approach the region later today and it’ll turn slightly milder ahead of it and then turn colder again for the middle and latter parts of the week. High pressure will resume control of the weather following the frontal passage and we’ll experience plenty of sunshine to go along with the below-normal temperatures. There are still signs for a big storm to form this weekend somewhere near or along the east coast with heavy rain potential for us and we’ll continue to monitor that threat over the next couple of days.

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12:30 PM | *Major storm threat this weekend along the eastern seaboard and a category 5 hurricane in the Pacific Ocean may play a role*

Paul Dorian

The month of October has a way of ending on occasion with very powerful storms near the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm on Halloween Day in 1991. There continue to be strong signals for a major storm along the eastern seaboard this weekend that could actually get a boost of energy and moisture from a category 5 hurricane in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. Heavy rain and strong winds are the main threats in the immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but snow is on the table from this potential nor’easter in the higher elevation regions from West Virginia to interior New England. This could turn out to be a rather long-lasting storm as well given the expected very large-scale upper-level trough that will set up during the weekend.

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7:00 AM | *A frosty start to the day as chilly pattern continues...major storm threat continues for the weekend with heavy rain potential for us*

Paul Dorian

The colder-than-normal weather pattern that set up after the passage of Hurricane Michael will continue right into the end of the month. High pressure on top of the region today will push to the east and give way to another cold frontal system later Tuesday that will usher in a renewed chilly air mass for the middle and latter parts of the week. High pressure will resume control of the weather following the frontal passage and we’ll experience plenty of sunshine to go along with the below-normal temperatures. There are still strong signs for a big storm to form this weekend somewhere near or along the east coast with heavy rain potential for us...we’ll continue to monitor that possibility over the next few days.

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7:00 AM | *Another cold air outbreak arrives tomorrow night*

Paul Dorian

After a frosty start to the day, sunshine will boost afternoon temperatures to near 60 degrees and it'll turn even milder on Saturday ahead of the next strong cold front. The arrival of the next cold air outbreak will be accompanied by strong NW winds from late tomorrow into Sunday and temperatures will be well below-normal to close out the weekend. Frost will again be possible around here by early Monday morning with temperatures likely in the mid 30's as we begin the new work week.

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7:00 AM | *Coldest day so far this season and frost likely late tonight*

Paul Dorian

Today will be the coldest day of the season so far in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with many spots not able to climb out of the 40’s for afternoon high temperatures. Temperatures will remain well below-normal tonight with scattered frost likely towards morning, but it’ll become milder to start the weekend ahead of the next strong cold front. The approach of that next front will be quite noticeable late Saturday as winds pick up and then temperatures will plunge Saturday night with strong northerly winds throughout the Mid-Atlantic region. Sunday will have a feel of late fall or early winter to it in much of the Northeast US; especially, in the higher elevations where there can be a touch of snow from an early season Great Lakes snow event. Frost is possible again around here late Sunday night/early Monday morning with that late weekend cold air outbreak and yet another cold air outbreak is possible by the middle of next week.

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7:00 AM | *Noticeable pickup in winds later today signals the arrival of another cold air outbreak...first 30's for overnight lows late tonight with frost possible*

Paul Dorian

Another strong cold front will approach the region later today and the winds will pick up noticeably as it closes in on the I-95 corridor. Overnight low temperatures should bottom out in the 30’s for the first time this season and there can be scattered frost in normally colder outlying areas. Unseasonable chill will grip the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday as highs struggle to reach the 50 degree mark (normal high is now 65 degrees). Yet another cold shot will arrive for the second half of the weekend and Sunday will have a feel of winter to it in parts of the Northeast US; especially, in the higher elevations where there can be a touch of snow from an early season Great Lakes snow event. Widespread frost is possible late Sunday night/early Monday with that late weekend cold air outbreak.

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2:00 PM | *Interesting signals for the end of the month with significant storm potential*

Paul Dorian

Numerous cold air outbreaks are likely to drop southeastward into the eastern US over the next couple of weeks and there are some interesting signals suggesting a possible strong storm could form near the east coast as October winds down. Long-range computer forecast maps strongly hint at “high-latitude blocking” to form late this month and teleconnection indices known as the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are predicted to tank sharply into negative territory which supports this idea. Of course, this is still in the “speculation” phase, but late October has a way of ending with some interesting storms along the east coast of the US including Hurricane Sandy in 2012 and the “perfect” storm around Halloween Day in 1991. While these two are extreme examples, there is some reason to believe an east coast storm could form as the month winds down and there will be plenty of cold air around.

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7:00 AM | *Cold frontal passage shaves 10-15 degrees off of today's temperatures...30's possible late tomorrow night/early Thursday with some frost possible*

Paul Dorian

The pattern shift that began after the passage of Hurricane Michael late last week looks like it is going to result in numerous cold air outbreaks into the eastern US during the second half of October. After a milder start to the new work week on Monday, it’ll be noticeably cooler today following the passage of a cold frontal system. Another strong cold front will arrive late tomorrow with strong winds and temperatures could bottom out in the upper 30’s in some spots by early Thursday morning for the first time this season and there can be some frost in the normally coldest suburban locations. Unseasonable cold will grip the Mid-Atlantic region on Thursday as highs struggle to reach 50 degrees (normal high is now 65 degrees). Yet another cold shot will arrive for the second half of the weekend and Sunday will have a feel of winter to it in parts of the Northeast US; especially, in the higher elevations where there can be a touch of snow in the first Great Lakes snow event. Widespread frost is possible around here late Sunday night/early Monday morning.

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12:55 PM | **Numerous cold air outbreaks for the eastern US during the second half of October**

Paul Dorian

It is not unusual this time of year to see a strong tropical system become the catalyst for a significant pattern change and indeed, the passage of Hurricane Michael late last week has seemingly opened the flood gates for cold air masses to drop southeastward into the eastern US from Canada. Canada suffered through one of their coldest Septembers on record, but the widespread cold was largely bottled up north of the border. The pattern shift that began after the passage of Hurricane Michael looks like it is going to result in numerous cold air outbreaks into the eastern US during the second half of October.

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7:00 AM | Damp and milder start to the new week

Paul Dorian

High pressure pushes off the coast today and we’ll have to deal with a couple of frontal systems as we begin the new work week. First, a warm front lifts through the region early today and then a cold front will push across the region early tonight. As a result, it’ll be a damp start to the week with scattered showers in the Mid-Atlantic region and maybe a late day/evening gusty thunderstorm. Another cold front may push through the area on Wednesday which should be followed by high pressure for the end of the week. Following the frontal passage, Thursday promises to be the coolest day of the week with way below-normal temperatures. In fact, it looks like there will be numerous cold air outbreaks during the rest of the month of October.

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