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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: PHL

7:00 AM | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat late tomorrow and tomorrow night***

Paul Dorian

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard late Friday and Friday night with severe thunderstorm activity possible from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida. While the steadiest and heaviest rain will end by early Saturday, there will likely be some instability shower activity as the upper-level low will still be positioned to the west of the region. By Easter Sunday, the powerful upper-level system and main culprit of this upcoming active weather will begin to weaken, but the atmosphere will remain unstable enough for the chance of additional showers. High pressure ridging takes control on Monday and temperatures will climb well into the 70’s and there should be plenty of sunshine to start the new work week.

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12:45 PM | ***Significant weather event next few days to include heavy rain and severe thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next couple of days as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist low-level air will result in a severe weather threat today in the region from Texas-to-Kansas and later tomorrow across Mississippi, Alabama and perhaps as far north as Tennessee.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for large hail and tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the south-central states and then on Thursday across the southeastern US.  Any heavy rainfall can result in localized flooding as much of the eastern half of the nation is experiencing well-saturated ground conditions. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat will reach the eastern seaboard on Friday afternoon and evening with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

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7:00 AM | **Heavy rain event coming later Friday into early Saturday and it may include strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity**

Paul Dorian

A back door cool front passed through the region last night and it’ll turn a bit cooler today with a low-level flow of air out of the northeast. This same front will turn around later tomorrow and advance to the north as a warm front. As a result, it’ll turn warmer on Thursday and become quite warm on Friday along with increasing south-to-southwest winds as we close out the work week. A strong cold front supported by vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere will grudgingly works its way to the east coast at the end of the week and this will result in a soaking rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Friday into early Saturday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is quite likely to be a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in much of the Mid-Atlantic region later Friday and Friday night. As the upper-level low crawls to the Mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend, it'll remain mainly cloudy on Saturday and instability showers will remain a threat. Skies should become partly sunny on Easter Sunday, but a shower cannot be ruled out.

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2:10 PM | *Threat of heavy rain and severe weather in the I-95 corridor from later Friday into early Saturday*

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will slowly grind its way to the east coast late this weekend and during the upcoming weekend and the result is likely to be a major rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Friday into early Saturday.  In addition, vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere will combine with a push of tropical moisture to increase chances for severe weather in the I-95 corridor from later Friday into Friday night to include the possibility of isolated tornadoes.  As the deep upper-level low inches overhead on Saturday, instability showers could form, but Sunday should see some improvement as the system finally begins to weaken and pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

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7:00 AM | *Heavy rain event later Friday into early Saturday and it may include strong-to-severe thunderstorms*

Paul Dorian

The upcoming Easter weekend will be somewhat unsettled and it may be preceded by a deluge from later Friday into Friday night. High pressure builds into the area today and winds will remain noticeable, but less of a factor than yesterday. A frontal system will approach the region in the overnight hours with the chance of showers and it’ll stall nearby keeping the threat for showers alive from Wednesday into Thursday. This front will advance to the north of here as a warm front by Friday and we'll turn warmer and winds will intensify noticeably to close out the work week. In addition, as a strong cold front slowly works its way towards the east coast, rain will break out later Friday and it is likely to turn into a heavy rain event. Thunderstorms are also possible during this late week heavy rain event which can reach strong-to-severe levels. Instability showers are possible this weekend, but it doesn't look like a total washout.

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7:00 AM | *As one significant rain event winds down another is on the horizon for later Friday into early Saturday*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will pull away to the northeast today and drag a cold front through the region which will produce lingering showers early this morning. Winds will pick up in intensity later today out of the NW as drier, colder air moves in following the frontal passage and gusts to 50 mph are possible. It’ll stay dry on Tuesday, but a warm front could bring a few showers to the region on Tuesday night and Wednesday. A strong low pressure system and its attendant frontal systems will likely bring another round of rain and thunderstorms here at week’s end and this is likely to be a significant rain event.

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8:50 PM (Saturday) | ****Threat of heavy rain and severe weather in the I-95 corridor from late Sunday into early Monday morning****

Paul Dorian

A powerful storm system will push towards the Great Lakes on Sunday with accumulating snow on its northwest side in places likely Chicago, Illinois and severe weather and downpours will be a threat in its warm sector to the southeast of the storm track.  The threat for downpours and severe weather will be “enhanced” across the Ohio Valley on Sunday and indeed there can be some heavy rain and severe thunderstorm activity that works its way into the I-95 corridor from later tomorrow afternoon into early Monday - including the possibility of isolated tornadoes..

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1:10 PM (Friday) | *Back-to-back rain events for the Mid-Atlantic region with downpours and strong storms possible in each…a third significant rain event possible at the end of next week*

Paul Dorian

The grass will certainly get off to a good start in the Mid-Atlantic region over the next few weeks as water will be quite plentiful – much as it was for all of the last growing season. The Mid-Atlantic region will get hit by back-to-back rain events in coming days and each one can result in some heavy downpours and perhaps even some strong thunderstorm activity. Looking ahead, there is even a good chance at a third significant rain event at the end of the next week for much of the eastern US including the Mid-Atlantic as the overall wet pattern shows no sign of slowing down.

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7:00 AM | *Back-to-back rain events with a concentration on Friday night and Sunday night...some of the rain can be heavy in each event*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will head over the Great Lakes region today and it’ll push a couple of frontal systems our way as we close out the work week. A couple of showers are likely later today, but the main rain threat is coming tonight and there can be a thunderstorm mixed in as well - some of the rain can be heavy at times. Clouds and sun on Saturday ahead of the next low pressure system and a couple of lingering showers are possible to go along with quite warm afternoon temperatures. More rain is likely here from later Sunday into Monday and this next event can result in some heavy rainfall in the Sunday overnight hours and during the early part of Monday.

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7:00 AM | *Weekend is not looking too good*

Paul Dorian

High pressure will push off the east coast later today, but it should remain close enough for another rain-free day in the Mid-Atlantic region. Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes region on Friday and generate a round of showers here on Friday night along with the chance for scattered thunderstorms. The weekend is not looking too good as clouds will dominate on Saturday and perhaps there will be some lingering shower activity. Another system will bring more rain here later Sunday into Monday and some of it can be heavy at times late Sunday night/early Monday.

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