Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified today from category 2 status this morning to category 4 status this evening. As Florence moves over very warm waters over the next couple of days, it should remain as a “major” hurricane and a climb to category 5 is not out of the question. All signs continue to point to a WNW track for Florence over the next few days with a possible landfall late Thursday/early Friday near the NC/SC border region. Once Florence reaches the Carolinas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric road block” as very strong high pressure ridging is setting up to the north across the northwestern Atlantic and southeastern part of Canada. As a result of the slow down, Florence is likely to generate tremendous amounts of rainfall in the Carolinas and into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic (e.g., Virginia) over an extended period of time.
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All eyes are focused on Hurricane Florence as we begin the new week and chances for a major impact on the US east coast continue to grow. Florence is now churning slowly towards the US east coast as a category 2 hurricane and may make a landfall late Thursday somewhere along the Carolina coastline – likely with “major” hurricane status. Very strong high pressure ridging is now building at upper levels of the atmosphere across southeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic and this will be a key player in the push of Florence towards the east coast over the next few days. In addition, this very strong high pressure ridge will eventually act as an “atmospheric brick wall” for Florence once it reaches the Carolinas and the brakes will be put on any attempt at a northward advance by the storm. This eventual slow down in the northward advance of Florence will allow for an extended period of heavy rainfall and the result could be tremendous rainfall amounts in the Carolinas and perhaps into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region.
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All eyes are focused on Hurricane Florence as it churns slowly towards the US east coast with a possible landfall late Thursday somewhere along the Carolina coastline - perhaps with "major" hurricane status. Very strong high pressure ridging is now building at upper levels of the atmosphere across southeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic and this will be a key player in the push of Florence towards the east coast over the next few days. In addition, this very strong high pressure ridge will act as an “atmospheric brick wall” for Florence once it reaches the coast and the brakes will be put on any attempt at a northward advance. This likely slow down in the northward advance of Florence will allow for an extended period of rainfall and the result could be excessive amounts in the Carolinas and much of the Mid-Atlantic region between late this week and early next week.
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Florence was downgraded in the overnight hours to “tropical storm” status, but it is quite likely to return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) in coming days. The evolving upper-level weather pattern will allow for Florence to head westward towards the US east coast over the next several days and it could have a significant impact during the latter part of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon is currently drifting slowly to the north over Arkansas and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall through early next week extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, there are two other tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic that are very likely to intensify to hurricane level in coming days. The first of these trailing systems is likely to head on a “southern” track taking it towards the Caribbean Sea and there is a chance that the last system of the four will curve northward to the open Atlantic.
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Hurricane Florence has been downgraded in the overnight hours to "tropical storm" status, but it is still lurking as a serious threat for the US east coast with potential impact during the latter part of next week. In the meantime, the remains of what was once Tropical Storm Gordon will interact with a cool frontal boundary zone in coming days and help to generate significant rainfall in the Mid-Atlantic region through the early part of next week. More rainfall like this on top of already well-saturated grounds - and potentially before a big impact by Florence - is not a good thing. The weekend will turn out much, much cooler than recent days as strong high pressure to the north will keep us in an east-to-northeast flow of air.
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Hurricane Florence continues to churn slowly to the northwest over the central Atlantic and it remains a threat to the US east coast. Tropical Depression Gordon has nearly grinded to a halt over the south-central US and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall over the next several days extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic. And if that isn’t enough, there is a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has an excellent chance of intensifying in coming days as it likely takes a more “southern” track compared to Florence.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. Tropical Storm Gordon came ashore early yesterday in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi border region and it is now well inland in the south-central US. While Gordon has been downgraded to tropical depression status, it is likely to combine with a frontal system and contribute to an extended swath of heavy rainfall in coming days. Meanwhile, Florence has intensified into major hurricane (category 3) status out over the central Atlantic. There is still a chance that Florence gets “captured” by an eastward-moving upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend over the north Atlantic, but odds favor it being “left behind”. If indeed Florence is not “captured” by the trough this weekend then strong and expanding high pressure ridging to the north early next week could very well steer it westward towards the US east coast. Any potential impact on the US east coast by Hurricane Florence would likely come during the middle or latter part of next week.
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The climatological peak of the Atlantic Basin tropical season comes in mid-September and this year is certainly holding true to form. Tropical Storm Gordon came ashore overnight in the vicinity of the Alabama/Mississippi border region and is now well inland over the central part of Mississippi. While Gordon has been downgraded to tropical depression status, it is likely to contribute to an extended swath of heavy rainfall in coming days. Meanwhile, Florence has intensified into major hurricane (category 3) status out over the central Atlantic. There is still a chance that Florence gets “captured” by an eastward-moving upper-level trough of low pressure this weekend over the north Atlantic, but odds favor it being “left behind”. If indeed Florence is not “captured” by the trough this weekend then strong and expanding high pressure ridging to the north early next week could very well steer it westward towards the US east coast. Any potential impact on the US east coast by Hurricane Florence would likely come during the middle or latter part of next week.
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Hot and humid weather will continue for another couple of days, but then a strong cool frontal passage late Thursday will pave the way for a cooler Friday and a cool weekend. The front will stall just south of here late in the week and that proximity will increase chances for occasional showers and thunderstorms on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. In addition, the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon will ride up to the northeast this weekend over the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and it could actually contribute to some rainfall around here. Elsewhere, Hurricane Florence continues to churn to the NW over the central Atlantic and it bears close watching for all residents along the east coast. Yet another system trails Florence closer to Africa’s west coast and it may also become a big concern in coming days.
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High pressure ridging has set up shop over the Northeast US and it will result in hot and humid conditions around here into Thursday. A strong cool front will arrive later Thursday with the chance for showers and thunderstorms and it’ll turn noticeably cooler at the end of the week and for the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, the tropical Atlantic has become quite active as we head towards the climatological peak (mid-September) of the tropical season. In fact, there is now a tropical storm (Gordon) over the Gulf of Mexico on its way towards the Mississippi/Louisiana border region where it will make landfall tonight and another tropical storm (Florence) out over the Atlantic Ocean. Yet a third system follows Florence still close to the Africa west coast – quite an active period for the next couple of weeks in the tropical Atlantic.
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