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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

12:50 PM | *New Jersey snow special today associated with a “norlun” trof…dusting to an inch or so possible as far inland as Philly and immediate suburbs…snow threat continues for Sunday/Monday*

Paul Dorian

Accumulating snow is falling over central and southern New Jersey and some areas may end up with 4 or 5 inches by the time the evening rolls around and a dusting to an inch or so is possible as far inland as Philly and its immediate suburbs.  This localized snow event is associated with an inverted (“norlun”) trof axis that extends northwestward to New Jersey from a western Atlantic Ocean intensifying low pressure system.  Looking ahead, a major storm will head from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Texas by the early part of the weekend and then it’ll make a move towards the North Carolina coastline.  Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southwestern part of Virginia.  After that, there are some signs that this storm can ultimately have an impact on the I-95 corridor region in the Sunday/Monday time frame, but we’re still a bit too far away to be certain. 

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11:35 AM | **Coast-to-coast cold…small-scale snow event to watch for on Wednesday associated with a “norlun” trough…widespread accumulating snow event for the late week/weekend**

Paul Dorian

Colder air moved into the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and the chill will remain in place right through the upcoming weekend.  In fact, the nation is currently experiencing colder-than-normal weather virtually from coast-to-coast and this general pattern will continue for the next few days.  In terms of storminess, one low pressure system over the western Atlantic on Wednesday may feature an inverted (“norlun”) trough extending back to the New Jersey coastline with the potential of small-scale heavy snow banding and another storm will approach the southern California/northern Baja California region late in the week from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This late week storm will then re-emerge over Texas by early Saturday and from there it’ll likely track towards the Carolina coastline.   Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southern part of Virginia.  After that, it is still somewhat unclear as to whether this storm will impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC with significant snowfall, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.

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1:00 PM | **Significant weekend storm threat continues for the east coast**

Paul Dorian

A storm will approach the southern part of California later this week and it will then take a southern track from Texas to the Southeast US coastline.  This storm is likely to have a significant impact in the Deep South in terms of rainfall and even the potential for severe weather and it could very well generate significant snowfall along the “Route I-40” states from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina.  After that, it is still unclear as to whether this storm will take a ride up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.

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12:30 PM | **Major storm threat later next week/weekend from California to the east coast**

Paul Dorian

The cold and stormy pattern that brought widespread colder-than-normal conditions to much of the country in November as well as some significant early season snowfall looks like it will continue during the first couple weeks of December.  One storm will pound the central Plains this weekend with significant accumulating snow and rain will once again dampen conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region.  After that, there is likely to be a strong storm system over the eastern Pacific Ocean around the middle of next week riding along in the southern branch of the jet stream. This storm may hit California in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with coastal rains and inland snows and it could take a southern track across the US and very well end up on the east coast next weekend as a significant snow and rain producer.

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11:25 AM | *Winter is off to a fast start across much of the nation and the cold and stormy pattern looks like it will continue as December gets underway*

Paul Dorian

The winter has gotten off to a fast start across much of the nation and it looks like the overall cold and stormy weather pattern will continue as we head through the first half of December.  Colder-than-normal conditions have been widespread through the month of November so far and snowfall has been unusually early and unusually high in many places.  Signs point to more widespread cold across the US during the first couple weeks of December and the next ten days may feature copious amounts of snow in many of the same areas that received snow earlier this month.

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11:30 AM | *The month of November has featured widespread cold across the US and Canada and it looks like it will include one of the coldest Thanksgiving Days ever in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US*

Paul Dorian

The month of November has been well below-normal in terms of temperatures across a very large portion of the US and Canada and one the weather highlights of this cold month may very well turn out to the coldest Thanksgiving Day ever in the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region.  A bitter cold Arctic air mass will flood the northeastern quadrant of the nation on Wednesday night and temperatures on Turkey Day (Thursday) may struggle to escape the 20’s in Philly and New York City and to reach the freezing mark in Washington, D.C.

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11:10 AM | ***First significant winter weather event of the season is on the way***

Paul Dorian

The first significant winter weather event of the season is on the way for much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Low pressure will intensify along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Thursday and impact the region from early tomorrow into early Friday. Accumulations of snow and ice are quite likely from this first of the season winter storm – even in the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC. Be prepared for slippery road conditions both tomorrow and tomorrow night as surface temperatures will not get too far above freezing during much of this upcoming event.

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11:35 AM | ***First winter storm of the season with some accumulations on the table for the big city metro regions***

Paul Dorian

In what promises to be a cold and snowy winter with a quick start (“2018-2019 Winter Outlook”), the first winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US is looking increasingly likely for Thursday/Thursday night as low pressure intensifies along the east coast. This coastal storm may end up impacting the region for an extended period of time from early Thursday into Friday as it takes on a “double-barrel” type of structure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Accumulations of snow and ice are quite possible from this early season winter storm – even into the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC - and significant amounts are likely across interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.

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12:00 PM | **Wintry precipitation threat on Thursday as strong coastal storm develops**

Paul Dorian

Our active and cold weather pattern of recent days will continue through this week and there is the real possibility of some wintry precipitation for the first time this season in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Moisture associated with a strong coastal storm will arrive in this area on Thursday and cold air will be locked in place and anchored by sprawling high pressure over the Northeast US. As a result, the threat exists in the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC of sleet, freezing rain and/or snow at the onset of this upcoming late week event with the highest probabilities of something frozen in the northern and western suburbs. Following the passage of the late week storm, yet another cold air mass will drop southeastward from central Canada and into the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming weekend.

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11:30 AM | **An extended stretch of winter-like cold for much of the nation**

Paul Dorian

Much colder-than-normal air has already infiltrated much of the northern US and soon it will extend to the east coast.  This change to colder-than-normal conditions will stick around for awhile as a reinforcing shot of Arctic air will plunge southward into the Northern Plains by early next week and then spread eastward to the east seaboard on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  In terms of precipitation, another soaking rain event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday with the heaviest and steadiest rain likely to fall during the PM hours.  Once this system passes by to the northeast of here late tomorrow night, winds will intensify and cold air will pour in from the northwest just in time for the weekend. A second storm is likely to pull out of the Gulf states early next week and produce more soaking rain here in the I-95 corridor on Monday night and Tuesday as it intensifies into a powerful system. This system will be followed by very strong - and potentially damaging - NW winds on Tuesday night and Wednesday and the influx of another very cold air mass for this time of year.

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