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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: KSC

7:00 AM | *Unusually quiet on the tropical scene - for now*

Paul Dorian

One last hurrah today from what remains of Hurricane Florence as it merges with a frontal system and produces showers and thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor. After the remnants of Florence exit off of the Northeast US coastline late tonight, high pressure will take over in much of the eastern US for the Wednesday-to-Friday time period. The tropics have become generally quiet in the Atlantic Basin and should stay so for the next several days. In fact, as of late Monday, there were no tropical storms/hurricanes/cyclones anywhere around the world which is quite unusual in mid-September and it hasn’t been so since the end of July. There are signs, however, for a resumption of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin later this month and/or during the month of October.

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7:00 AM | *The remnants of Florence to push off the Northeast US coastline by early Wednesday*

Paul Dorian

The remains of Florence have begun a looping pattern and are accelerating to the northeast today and should push off the Northeast US coastline by late tomorrow night. Once Florence exits the Northeast US, the tropical Atlantic will become relatively quiet for a brief time. There are signs, however, for more active tropical activity to resume later this month and perhaps for parts of October.

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7:00 AM | *Hurricane Florence now bashing the Carolinas*

Paul Dorian

Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it will crawl along the coastline over the next 24 hours. This slow movement will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than 20 inches of rainfall. Florence will push inland this weekend and cross over South Carolina in a weakened state and begin a looping process which will begin with an acceleration to the northwest and then to the northeast. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this possible break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and for part of October.

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7:00 AM | **Hurricane Florence closing in on the Carolina coastline now as a cat 2**

Paul Dorian

Florence continues to move towards the Carolina coastline now as a cat 2 hurricane and it should get quite close by early tomorrow. As it approaches the coast, it will slow down dramatically as it becomes influenced by strong upper-level blocking high pressure to the north. From this location, Florence will likely take a turn to the southwest and then painfully crawl down the Carolina coastline leading to an extended period of heavy rain and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas as well as nearby inland locations. Over the weekend, Florence will then likely push inland over South Carolina and Georgia in a somewhat weakened state and then it’ll begin a looping process in the early part of next week. This loop will begin with a push to the northwest and then a turn to the north and ultimately, a push to the northeast before finally exiting the US around the middle of next week.

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7:00 AM | **Major Hurricane Florence headed towards the North/South Carolina border region**

Paul Dorian

Florence continues to move at a pretty good clip this morning at 17 mph in a west-to-northwest direction and towards the Carolina coastline as a major (category 4) hurricane. It is likely to reach the North/South Carolina border region early Friday and slow down dramatically as it encounters blocking high pressure to the north. From this point, Florence is likely to crawl southwestward along the Carolina coastline leading to an extended period of heavy rain and strong winds for coastal sections in the Carolinas. By late in the weekend or early next week, Florence is likely to head inland in a weakened state - perhaps as far south as over Georgia – and then eventually loop back around to the east before likely finally exiting the US around the middle of next week.

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5:00 AM | **Major Hurricane Florence headed towards the Carolina coastline**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours from category 2 status to “major” category 4. As Florence moves over very warm waters over the next couple of days, it should remain as a “major” hurricane and a climb to category 5 status is not out of the question. All signs continue to point to a WNW track for Florence over the next few days with a possible landfall late Thursday/early Friday along the Carolina coastline. Once Florence reaches the Carolinas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric road block” as very strong high pressure ridging is setting up to the north across the northwestern Atlantic and southeastern part of Canada. As a result of the slow down, Florence is likely to generate tremendous amounts of rainfall in the Carolinas and perhaps into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Virginia) over an extended period of time.

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5:00 AM | *All eyes on the tropics*

Paul Dorian

All eyes are focused on Hurricane Florence as it churns slowly towards the US east coast with a possible landfall on Thursday somewhere along the Carolina coastline - perhaps with "major" hurricane status. Very strong high pressure ridging is now building at upper levels of the atmosphere across southeastern Canada and the northwestern Atlantic and this will be a key player in the push of Florence towards the east coast over the next few days. In addition, this very strong high pressure ridge will act as an “atmospheric brick wall” for Florence once it reaches the coast and the brakes will be put on any attempt at a northward advance. This likely slow down in the northward advance of Florence will allow for an extended period of rainfall and the result could be excessive amounts in the Carolinas and much of the Mid-Atlantic region between late this week and early next week.

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12:50 PM Friday | *Tropical Storm Florence to return to “major” hurricane status and remains a serious threat to the east coast…significant rainfall next few days from Gordon and frontal system*

Paul Dorian

Florence was downgraded in the overnight hours to “tropical storm” status, but it is quite likely to return to “major” hurricane status (i.e., category 3 or higher) in coming days.  The evolving upper-level weather pattern will allow for Florence to head westward towards the US east coast over the next several days and it could have a significant impact during the latter part of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Gordon is currently drifting slowly to the north over Arkansas and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall through early next week extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic region.  In addition, there are two other tropical systems in the eastern Atlantic that are very likely to intensify to hurricane level in coming days.  The first of these trailing systems is likely to head on a “southern” track taking it towards the Caribbean Sea and there is a chance that the last system of the four will curve northward to the open Atlantic.

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7:00 AM | *Hurricane Florence continues to churn over the eastern Atlantic...yet another tropical system in the eastern Atlantic and it will take a "southern" route"

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence continues to churn slowly to the northwest over the central Atlantic and it remains a threat to the US east coast. Tropical Depression Gordon has nearly grinded to a halt over the south-central US and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall over the next few days extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic. And if that isn’t enough, there is a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has an excellent chance of intensifying in coming days as it likely takes a more “southern” track compared to Florence. This “third” system could end up near or over the Caribbean Sea in about a week or so and then it could very well turn to the northwest and towards the Southeast US.

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1:00 PM | *Hurricane Florence remains a threat to the US east coast for the mid-to-latter part of next week…the remains of Gordon to contribute to a swath of heavy rainfall in the near-term*

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence continues to churn slowly to the northwest over the central Atlantic and it remains a threat to the US east coast.  Tropical Depression Gordon has nearly grinded to a halt over the south-central US and it will combine with a strong cool frontal system to produce a wide swath of heavy rainfall over the next several days extending from the south-central US to the Mid-Atlantic. And if that isn’t enough, there is a third tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic that has an excellent chance of intensifying in coming days as it likely takes a more “southern” track compared to Florence.

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