The high temperature forecast in Death Valley, California for the next couple of days is an impressive 115°F or so, but this is rather pedestrian compared to the all-time record high that occurred on this date one hundred and five years ago. On July 10th, 1913, the weather observer at Greenland Ranch in Death Valley recorded a high temperature of 134°F. One hundred and five years later, this is still the highest air temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth. In addition to this all-time and worldwide high temperature record, the year of 1913 produced numerous other extreme weather events.
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The summer solstice has just passed and the days will grow shorter and shorter from here on out until the winter season gets underway. While winter is still a long way off, there are already some clues that can provide some insight as to what kind of weather we can expect around here in the Mid-Atlantic region. First, signs point to the formation of warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures by the upcoming winter season in two key areas of the Pacific Ocean: 1) the central equatorial region and 2) the Gulf of Alaska. Second, there is little doubt that solar activity will remain on the low side through the upcoming winter season as we are rapidly approaching the next solar minimum phase from an already historically weak solar cycle #24. Finally, one important wintertime cold air source region for the Mid-Atlantic is Greenland and it is currently experiencing above-normal snow and ice cover. While this is in the speculation phase, all of these factors point to the possibility of cold and snowy conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming 2018-2019 winter season.
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The Atlantic Basin tropical season is still rather young having “officially” just begun a few weeks ago on June 1st, but there have been two factors so far that have suppressed activity and they may not let up anytime soon. First, sea surface temperatures have been running at below-normal levels in the all-important "breeding grounds" region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the region extending from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea. Second, there has been a persistent flow of dry air moving westward from the Sahara Desert region of Africa into this same "breeding grounds" region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Both of these factors tend to inhibit the formation of tropical storms or the intensification of storms that actually do manage to form.
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In recent days, Arctic sea ice volume has reached nearly normal levels when compared to the period of 2004-2013 for this time of year and it is noticeably higher than one year ago. Arctic sea ice extent has been relatively stable during the past decade or so albeit consistently at below-normal levels. This recent uptick to near normalcy in sea ice volume and the relative stability over the past decade or so in sea ice extent is related to long-term temperature trends in the Arctic region. Specifically, despite the fact that Arctic temperatures have often run at above-normal levels in the cold season in recent years, they have usually been running at normal to slightly below-normal levels during the all-important summer melting season. Above-normal temperatures during the cold season in the Arctic are usually well below freezing which minimizes the overall impact on the melting of sea ice. The summer season is when temperatures are slightly above the freezing mark from a climatological viewpoint and any sustained warmer-than-normal conditions during those particular months could have an important impact on sea ice; however, this just has not been happening over an extended period of time.
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Solar cycle 24 is rapidly approaching the next solar minimum and while the sun currently has three sunspots region visible to Earth, much of the year has seen a spotless sun. In fact, the sun has been blank on 73 days in 2018 which amounts to 57% of the year. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless. That last solar minimum actually reached a nadir in 2008 when an astounding 73% of the year featured a spotless sun - the most spotless days in a given year since 1913. The current solar cycle is the 24th solar cycle since 1755 when extensive record-keeping of sunspot activity began and it on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. As a result of the last unusually long and deep solar minimum and very weak bounce back during solar cycle 24’s maximum phase, much attention will be focused on the rapidly approaching solar minimum and subsequent solar cycle #25 to see if the sun may be entering an extended period of quiet.
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To be fair, most of the computer model predictions of a transition from La Nina (colder-than-normal) to El Nino (warmer-than-normal) in the equatorial Pacific Ocean suggest this will take place over the next few months, but the track record of these same models from just one year ago is not all that confidence-building and the latest 7-day change in sea surface temperatures is certainly not yet showing any kind of dramatic turnaround. The overall conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are very important to the Atlantic Basin tropical season which officially begins in just over one month’s time. Computer forecast model predictions of an El Nino last year were simply not accurate and the surprise return of La Nina late last summer contributed to the suddenly very active tropical season of 2017.
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As we know full well here in the Mid-Atlantic region, there have been an unusual frequency of late winter and early spring cold air outbreaks leading to consistently below-normal temperatures during March and April. This extended period of unusual cold has also impacted other parts of the nation including the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, central and northern Plains, and parts of the Southeast US. The late season cold has also had an inhibiting effect on the tornado season so far across much of the US with overall numbers way down compared to normal. In fact, the state of Oklahoma – right in the heart of tornado alley – is about to set a record for their latest first tornado ever.
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While consistently at below-normal levels since the mid 1990’s, Arctic sea ice extent has stayed relatively stable during the past decade or so. This recent stability in Arctic sea ice extent is likely due mainly to the fact that temperatures have been regularly near-normal during the all-important summer season and peak melting time of the year. Temperatures have often run at above-normal levels during the cold season in the Arctic, but during those particular months, conditions are usually well below freezing which minimizes the impact on the melting of sea ice. In the summer season, Arctic temperatures are slightly above the freezing mark from a climatological viewpoint and this is the time of year when sustained warmer-than-normal conditions could have an important impact on sea ice extent, but it just hasn’t been happening that way in an extended period of time.
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The sun is blank today for the 10th straight day and it has been without sunspots this year more than half the time as the current solar cycle (#24) heads towards the next solar minimum. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless. That last solar minimum actually reached a nadir in 2008 when an astounding 73% of the year featured a spotless sun - the most spotless days in a given year since 1913. All indications are that the upcoming solar minimum may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. One of the natural consequences of low solar activity is the weakening of the solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows for the intensification of cosmic rays and easier access to Earth.
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The sun is blank today for the 10th straight day and it has been without sunspots this year more than half the time as the current solar cycle heads towards the next solar minimum. Solar cycle 24 is currently on pace to be the weakest sunspot cycle with the fewest sunspots since cycle 14 peaked in February 1906. Solar cycle 24 continues a recent trend of weakening solar cycles which began with solar cycle 21 that peaked around 1980. The last time the sun was this blank in a given year on a percentage basis was 2009 during the last solar minimum when 71% of the time was spotless. That last solar minimum actually reached a nadir in 2008 when an astounding 73% of the year featured a spotless sun - the most spotless days in a given year since 1913.
All indications are that the upcoming solar minimum which is expected to begin in 2019 may be even quieter than the last one which was the deepest in nearly a century. One of the natural impacts of decreasing solar activity is the weakening of the ambient solar wind and its magnetic field which, in turn, allows more and more cosmic rays to penetrate the solar system. The intensification of cosmic rays can have important consequences on such things as Earth’s cloud cover and climate, the safety of our astronauts exploring in space, and lightning.
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