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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

11:15 AM | *Complex weekend storm system to bring the Mid-Atlantic region rain initially and then the real chance for a mixing with or changeover to snow and/or sleet*

Paul Dorian

A complex weather pattern is unfolding for the weekend that will feature multiple surface low pressure systems supported all weekend by the volatile combination of a deep and slow-moving wave of upper-level energy. As a result, the threat for precipitation will extend from late today into Sunday night and it is likely to come in two waves. The front end is likely to feature occasional plain rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from late today into early tomorrow night, but the back end forecast becomes a bit trickier for the period from late tomorrow night into Sunday night. Colder air will seep into the Mid-Atlantic region during the second half of the weekend and this could lead to a mix with or a changeover of the rain to snow and/or sleet; especially, in areas to the north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor.  Another cold shot will arrive late Monday following the departure of the complex weekend storm and NW winds will become quite strong by Monday night and early Tuesday as Arctic air floods the region.

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2:15 PM | *Three systems to monitor next 5 days…nuisance snow tomorrow well north of PA/MD border…soaking rain event later Friday/Saturday…strong winds with next cold shot…an early peek at Christmas*

Paul Dorian

There has been a bit of a lull this week in the recent active weather pattern, but that will change in coming days and there are three different systems that bear watching between today and early next week. The first system is likely to produce some nuisance snow in areas primarily well to the north of the Mason-Dixon Line from late tonight into mid-day tomorrow and there can be some slippery road conditions.  The second and stronger system will generate a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from late Friday into Saturday morning and the rain can linger in late Saturday and even into Sunday as it’ll be a slow mover.  On the heels of the weekend storm, another cold shot will arrive on Monday and it will be supported by vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere which could result in strong winds in the Northeast US and numerous snow showers.

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11:00 AM | *Unfolding stratospheric warming event signaling more frigid air is likely in store for the central and eastern US*

Paul Dorian

One of the ways to monitor the potential for wintertime Arctic air outbreaks in the central and eastern U.S. is to follow what is happening in the stratosphere over the Northern Hemisphere. Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs) are large, rapid temperature rises in the winter polar stratosphere, occurring primarily in the Northern Hemisphere, and these events have been found to set off a chain of events in the atmosphere that ultimately can lead to polar vortex disruptions and Arctic air outbreaks for the central and eastern US. Indeed, there is a significant stratospheric warming event now unfolding and it raises the chances for more frigid weather during the middle and latter stages of January.

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12:50 PM | *New Jersey snow special today associated with a “norlun” trof…dusting to an inch or so possible as far inland as Philly and immediate suburbs…snow threat continues for Sunday/Monday*

Paul Dorian

Accumulating snow is falling over central and southern New Jersey and some areas may end up with 4 or 5 inches by the time the evening rolls around and a dusting to an inch or so is possible as far inland as Philly and its immediate suburbs.  This localized snow event is associated with an inverted (“norlun”) trof axis that extends northwestward to New Jersey from a western Atlantic Ocean intensifying low pressure system.  Looking ahead, a major storm will head from the eastern Pacific Ocean to Texas by the early part of the weekend and then it’ll make a move towards the North Carolina coastline.  Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southwestern part of Virginia.  After that, there are some signs that this storm can ultimately have an impact on the I-95 corridor region in the Sunday/Monday time frame, but we’re still a bit too far away to be certain. 

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11:35 AM | **Coast-to-coast cold…small-scale snow event to watch for on Wednesday associated with a “norlun” trough…widespread accumulating snow event for the late week/weekend**

Paul Dorian

Colder air moved into the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and the chill will remain in place right through the upcoming weekend.  In fact, the nation is currently experiencing colder-than-normal weather virtually from coast-to-coast and this general pattern will continue for the next few days.  In terms of storminess, one low pressure system over the western Atlantic on Wednesday may feature an inverted (“norlun”) trough extending back to the New Jersey coastline with the potential of small-scale heavy snow banding and another storm will approach the southern California/northern Baja California region late in the week from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This late week storm will then re-emerge over Texas by early Saturday and from there it’ll likely track towards the Carolina coastline.   Given this track, significant accumulating snow will likely be the result from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina and even as far north as the southern part of Virginia.  After that, it is still somewhat unclear as to whether this storm will impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC with significant snowfall, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.

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1:00 PM | **Significant weekend storm threat continues for the east coast**

Paul Dorian

A storm will approach the southern part of California later this week and it will then take a southern track from Texas to the Southeast US coastline.  This storm is likely to have a significant impact in the Deep South in terms of rainfall and even the potential for severe weather and it could very well generate significant snowfall along the “Route I-40” states from Oklahoma-to-North Carolina.  After that, it is still unclear as to whether this storm will take a ride up along the Mid-Atlantic coastline and impact the big cities from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC, but that scenario is certainly still on the table.

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12:30 PM | **Major storm threat later next week/weekend from California to the east coast**

Paul Dorian

The cold and stormy pattern that brought widespread colder-than-normal conditions to much of the country in November as well as some significant early season snowfall looks like it will continue during the first couple weeks of December.  One storm will pound the central Plains this weekend with significant accumulating snow and rain will once again dampen conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region.  After that, there is likely to be a strong storm system over the eastern Pacific Ocean around the middle of next week riding along in the southern branch of the jet stream. This storm may hit California in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame with coastal rains and inland snows and it could take a southern track across the US and very well end up on the east coast next weekend as a significant snow and rain producer.

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11:25 AM | *Winter is off to a fast start across much of the nation and the cold and stormy pattern looks like it will continue as December gets underway*

Paul Dorian

The winter has gotten off to a fast start across much of the nation and it looks like the overall cold and stormy weather pattern will continue as we head through the first half of December.  Colder-than-normal conditions have been widespread through the month of November so far and snowfall has been unusually early and unusually high in many places.  Signs point to more widespread cold across the US during the first couple weeks of December and the next ten days may feature copious amounts of snow in many of the same areas that received snow earlier this month.

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11:30 AM | *The month of November has featured widespread cold across the US and Canada and it looks like it will include one of the coldest Thanksgiving Days ever in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US*

Paul Dorian

The month of November has been well below-normal in terms of temperatures across a very large portion of the US and Canada and one the weather highlights of this cold month may very well turn out to the coldest Thanksgiving Day ever in the Northeast US and Mid-Atlantic region.  A bitter cold Arctic air mass will flood the northeastern quadrant of the nation on Wednesday night and temperatures on Turkey Day (Thursday) may struggle to escape the 20’s in Philly and New York City and to reach the freezing mark in Washington, D.C.

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11:10 AM | ***First significant winter weather event of the season is on the way***

Paul Dorian

The first significant winter weather event of the season is on the way for much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Low pressure will intensify along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Thursday and impact the region from early tomorrow into early Friday. Accumulations of snow and ice are quite likely from this first of the season winter storm – even in the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC. Be prepared for slippery road conditions both tomorrow and tomorrow night as surface temperatures will not get too far above freezing during much of this upcoming event.

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