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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

1:10 PM | ***Wintry mess early next week likely to include accumulating snow and ice for the Mid-Atlantic region***

Paul Dorian

An active and complex weather pattern will bring back-to-back threats to the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and there can be some accumulating snow in each event.  The first system will be rather weak, but it can still generate some accumulating snow from Sunday night into early Monday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  The second and stronger system will have much more available moisture compared to the first and its main impact will likely take place from later Monday into Tuesday night.  This second event could feature a snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario with snow and ice accumulations possible on the front end before any changeover to plain rain.

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12:30 PM | *An active pattern is shaping up with multiple storm threats and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) suggests an extended stretch of colder-than-normal weather as well*

Paul Dorian

This week has been featured some unseasonably mild weather in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a strong cold frontal passage on Friday will usher in a much colder air mass for the weekend and there are reasons to believe that we may be entering an extended cold and stormy stretch of weather.  A tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecasted to enter into “phases” that argue for colder-than-normal conditions in much the eastern US for an extended period of time.  In addition, the overall pattern is shaping up to be quite active with numerous systems likely to cross the country in coming days and threaten this region with lots of wintry precipitation.

 

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12:40 PM | *More snow coming on Friday…more on the record cold...and a temporary break in the cold*

Paul Dorian

Clouds will increase late tonight ahead of a quick-moving low pressure system and there can be a minor snow event on Friday in the DC-to-Philly corridor.  This system is a fast-mover with limited upper-level support and moisture so it should not be a significant snow producer - perhaps a coating to an inch or two - but still need to watch for slick spots with the frigid cold ground-level air temperatures.  The weekend will begin a warming trend that will peak in the Monday/Tuesday/Wednesday time period of next week, but cold weather will make a return by the end of next week.  Elsewhere, the record-breaking cold across the Upper Midwest will ease after today, but more all-time record lows were set this morning.

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11:40 AM | ***Precipitation picks up in intensity later today…Arctic front on Wednesday to feature strong wind gusts, snow showers and possible snow squalls…near 0 degrees by early Thursday morning***

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front is sliding towards the east coast at this hour and upper-level energy in the southern US is enhancing precipitation on its southern end.  This enhanced precipitation will move northeast and into the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor later today and continue into the evening hours – mainly in the form of snow by the end of the day.  The Arctic front arrives on Wednesday and it will accompanied by strong wind gusts, scattered snow showers and perhaps a heavy snow squall or two.  Temperatures will then plunge tomorrow night following the passage of the Arctic front and near zero is a strong likelihood in many suburban locations by early Thursday morning. 

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1:45 PM | ***Accumulating snow later Tuesday and roads could get slick…snow showers possible on Wednesday, maybe a snow squall…Arctic blast arrives in full force on Wednesday night***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will slide through the Great Lakes region on Tuesday and a strong cold front will trail on its southern side all the way into the southern states.  A secondary low pressure system will form along the frontal boundary zone and enhance the precipitation threat in the I-95 corridor later tomorrow and tomorrow night.  Precipitation may arrive early tomorrow in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor as snow or a wintry mix and then change briefly to rain before changing back to all snow as colder air filters into the region on the back side of the frontal passage.  A true Arctic boundary arrives on Wednesday and it is likely to be accompanied by strong wind gusts, possible snow showers, and perhaps even a heavier snow squall.  Arctic air then blasts into the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday night and temperatures could be near zero degrees in many spots by Thursday morning.

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Friday 12:40 PM | **Intense cold to invade the north-central US next week and spread to east coast…chance for accumulating snow here as the Arctic air arrives...potential historic cold for Chicago**

Paul Dorian

All signs continue to point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the north-central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week.  As the Arctic air pushes towards the eastern seaboard, low pressure may form along the strong cold frontal boundary zone possibly resulting in some snowfall late Tuesday or Tuesday night in the Mid-Atlantic region.  This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the bitter cold air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks.  This kind of air mass is likely to become a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero or so in Chicago, Illinois – awfully close to their all-time record low of -27°F set in January 1985.  The Great Lakes ice cover doubled in the past week and will increase dramatically over the next week.

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12:00 PM | **Brutally cold air mass likely to invade the central US next week and then spread to the east coast**

Paul Dorian

All signs point to the invasion of a brutally cold air mass into the central US next week that will make its way to the east coast around mid-week.  This upcoming Arctic air outbreak looks quite similar to the air mass that impacted the central and eastern US during January 1985 which followed a major stratospheric warming event - much like what we have just experienced over the past several weeks.  This kind of air mass has the potential of becoming quite a news making event for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes/Northern Plains and could result in actual air temperatures as severe as 25 degrees below zero in Chicago – awfully close to the all-time low of -27°F set in January 1985. 

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2:30 PM | **Widespread cold later this week will have its coldest core over southern Canada, but the brunt of next week’s brutal cold air outbreak is headed right into the central and eastern US**

Paul Dorian

Despite the fact that it’ll turn unseasonably mild later tonight and early Thursday in much of the eastern US, the overall cold weather pattern shows no signs of slowing down.  There will be another outbreak of cold air in the eastern US for the Thursday night/Friday/Saturday time period, but the coldest core of that air mass (relative-to-normal) will be centered over south-central and southeastern Canada.  Next week, however, it looks like a brutally cold air mass will plunge southward right into the central US and eventually make its way to the east coast - and the coldest temperatures relative-to-normal will be in the US.   

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12:15 PM | ***Relatively minor event tonight…major storm this weekend with rain, ice, snow…quick thumping of snow possible at the onset later Saturday in areas north of the PA/MD border***

Paul Dorian

There will be three different systems to deal with in the Mid-Atlantic region during the next week or so with a relatively minor storm tonight and then a major storm this weekend. Yet another storm could impact the Mid-Atlantic region with rain and/or snow by the middle of next week. Tonight’s system is likely to result in a coating to an inch or two in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor with the higher amounts to the north and west of Route I-95 and lesser amounts to the south and east.  A major storm will bring lots of precipitation to the Mid-Atlantic region this weekend with everything on the table from heavy rain to accumulating snow and accumulating ice.  An Arctic blast will flood the region on the heels of the storm late in the day on Sunday and this could result in a quick freeze-up and potential hazardous driving conditions.  Single digit lows are likely by early Monday morning and the coldest day of the year so far will likely see temperatures struggling to get out of the teens in the I-95 corridor.

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1:00 PM | ***Some accumulating snow likely tomorrow night…major weekend storm likely to bring rain, ice, snow to the I-95 corridor…potential “flash freeze” late Sunday as an Arctic blast arrives***

Paul Dorian

A cold and stormy weather pattern is getting locked in for the eastern US and there may be three different systems to deal with over the next week or so.  On Thursday, low pressure will head in this direction from the Ohio Valley and likely produce some snow around here on Thursday night.  A much more significant storm is going to impact the I-95 corridor this weekend and everything is on the table for this event including rain, ice and/or snow.  It is still too early to determine the magnitude of each precipitation type for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor, but accumulations of ice and snow are on the table.  In addition, as the weekend storm pulls to the northeast later Sunday, Arctic air will flood the Mid-Atlantic region and any precipitation that lingers can change to ice and then snow before ending.  Also, as temperatures plunge late Sunday, a “flash freeze” is possible in some areas with a quick ice up on roads, etc.  The coldest air mass of the season so far will likely result in single digit lows in parts of the region by early Monday morning and highs may be confined to the teens to start the new work week.

 

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