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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

10:50 AM | *Powerful Great Lakes storm this weekend with blizzard conditions to bring rain to the Mid-Atlantic region and a spring tease*

Paul Dorian

A rapidly intensifying low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes region this weekend from the southern Plains and it could very well become a news making event with wide ranging ramifications over a large area.  This system has the potential to deepen to around 978 millibars (28.88 inches) or so by the time it reaches the Great Lakes early Sunday which may be close to monthly record low pressure values for portions of Michigan.  Blizzard conditions are likely to accompany this powerful storm system this weekend over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Farther east, rain will spread northeastward from the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic region later Saturday and continue into early Sunday. Once the rain ends on Sunday, temperatures have a chance to spike to 60 degrees or higher in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC providing us with a spring tease, but the warm up won’t last too long as colder air returns for the early part of next week.

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10:30 AM (Monday) | ****A major mid-week mess is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region with significant accumulating snow on the front end in many areas before a changeover to ice, rain****

Paul Dorian

A major winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday with significant accumulating snow on the front end in many areas before a changeover to ice and rain. An initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday and a secondary low pressure will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  Another key player will be strong cold high pressure that will be situated to our north on Wednesday and it will lock-in cold, dense low-level air - at least at the onset of this mid-week event.  Snow should break out in the early morning hours on Wednesday in the DC metro region, then by the mid-to-late morning hours in Philly, and finally during the mid-day or early afternoon hours in NYC. 

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10:20 AM Sunday | ***A wintry mess from late today into early Monday…strong storm by the middle of the week with significant snow accumulations possible on the front end***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will head our way later and although it is a fairly fast-mover, it is likely to have some impact on the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, to the north and west of the big cities.  Snow, ice and rain is likely in areas to the north of the PA/MD border from late today into early Monday and a mix of ice and rain is expected to the south of there. Road conditions can become slick in all areas during the nighttime hours and into early Monday morning with possible small accumulations of snow and/or ice. By the middle of the week, we’ll have to deal with a stronger storm and this one could result in significant snow accumulations for much of the Mid-Atlantic region followed by ice and rain.

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4:00 PM Saturday | ***Wintry mess from late tomorrow into early Monday…strong storm by the middle of the week with possible significant snow and ice***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will head our way late Sunday and produce snow and ice north of the PA/MD border and a wintry mix to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line.  Road conditions can become slick from late tomorrow into early Monday with small accumulations of snow and/or ice.  By the middle of the week, we’ll have to deal with a stronger storm and this one could result in significant precipitation for the Mid-Atlantic region including accumulating snow, ice and rain.

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Friday 12:00 PM | ***Wintry precipitation threat late Sunday/Sunday night…significant threat by the middle of next week with accumulating snow likely***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will ride along a stalled out frontal boundary zone on Saturday moving in a west-to-east direction and its precipitation field will likely not extend farther north than central Virginia with little or no impact expected in DC, Philly and NYC.  A second low pressure system will likely result in some snow or snow showers late Sunday in areas north of the PA/MD border and a mix of rain and snow showers to the south of the Mason-Dixon Line. 

By the middle of next week, we’ll have to deal with a third low pressure system - easily the most intriguing and potentially significant - as this one will have the plenty of moisture available to it. In addition, the mid-week storm is likely to have cold air in place ahead of it with strong, cold high pressure positioned to our north and northwest. The overall pattern that is unfolding for the mid-week storm raises the chance for an extended period of frozen precipitation in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor including accumulating snow. 

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12:15 PM | *Some snow possible on Saturday in the region from DC-to-Atlantic City, NJ…light precipitation threat in the Mid-Atlantic on Sunday night…third threat comes Tues night/Wed…California storm*

Paul Dorian

Three different low pressure systems will threaten at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region over coming days and this active weather pattern is currently featuring a powerful storm in California.  The precipitation shield from the first wave of interest for the Mid-Atlantic region looks like it will have its northern extent stretching from around the DC metro region to Atlantic City, NJ. The second system is likely to be rather weak and could result in light rain and/or snow from Sunday night into early Monday.  The third threat to monitor in coming days looks like it will have more moisture available to it and may result in another snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario in the Mid-Atlantic come late Tuesday night or Wednesday.  Meanwhile, in California, heavy rain continues to fall along coastal sections and heavy snow continues to pile up over the Sierra Nevada Mountains with some incredible snow amounts. 

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11:45 AM | *Numerous teleconnection indices (MJO, SOI, NAO, AO) point to a stormy pattern*

Paul Dorian

There is ample empirical evidence that environmental phenomena in one part of the world can have a causal connection to another part of the world and several of these “climate anomalies” are tracked by meteorologists through teleconnection indices.  Several of these teleconnection indices are currently suggesting that a cold and stormy stretch of weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region which may result in numerous winter storm threats beginning as early as this weekend and perhaps continuing into the month of March.

The teleconnection indices analyzed here include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).  The MJO is related to a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics on a regular basis.  The SOI provides us with information on pressure differences across the Pacific Ocean and on the “El Nino Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) state.  The AO and NAO indices provide us with information on the pressure and temperature patterns across the North Atlantic/Arctic region.  All of these indices are heading into territory which suggests that a cold and stormy weather pattern is unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region and it could last awhile. 

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11:20 AM | ***”Round 2” of extended winter weather event to bring accumulating snow, ice to Philly and NYC…icing still a threat in DC suburbs for the overnight***

Paul Dorian

“Round 1” of our extended winter weather event is winding down and “round 2” is about to get underway.  The first part of this long event brought some accumulating snow to the Philly metro region and a combination of snow and ice to the DC area while NYC stayed precipitation-free.  “Round 2” will result in heavier overall precipitation amounts with accumulating snow and ice in Philly and NYC and an icing threat for some of the suburbs to the north and west of DC. 

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1:10 PM | ***Wintry mess early next week likely to include accumulating snow and ice for the Mid-Atlantic region***

Paul Dorian

An active and complex weather pattern will bring back-to-back threats to the Mid-Atlantic region early next week and there can be some accumulating snow in each event.  The first system will be rather weak, but it can still generate some accumulating snow from Sunday night into early Monday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  The second and stronger system will have much more available moisture compared to the first and its main impact will likely take place from later Monday into Tuesday night.  This second event could feature a snow-to-ice-to-rain scenario with snow and ice accumulations possible on the front end before any changeover to plain rain.

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12:30 PM | *An active pattern is shaping up with multiple storm threats and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) suggests an extended stretch of colder-than-normal weather as well*

Paul Dorian

This week has been featured some unseasonably mild weather in the Mid-Atlantic region, but a strong cold frontal passage on Friday will usher in a much colder air mass for the weekend and there are reasons to believe that we may be entering an extended cold and stormy stretch of weather.  A tropical disturbance known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecasted to enter into “phases” that argue for colder-than-normal conditions in much the eastern US for an extended period of time.  In addition, the overall pattern is shaping up to be quite active with numerous systems likely to cross the country in coming days and threaten this region with lots of wintry precipitation.

 

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