Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US/Midwest: A storm that has already been a news making event in the Southwest US for its unusual snowfall will undergo explosive intensification this weekend and continue to make news as it’ll have major ramifications across much of the rest of the nation. Low pressure is heading northeastward today from the southern Plains and towards the Great Lakes and it will generate blizzard conditions all along the way. This system has the potential to strengthen over a 36-hour period from around 999 millibars this morning to near 971 millibars by late Sunday and it can result in monthly record low pressure readings in parts of the Great Lakes region.
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Mid-Atlantic/Midwest/Northeast US: A storm that has already been a news making event in the Southwest US for its unusual snowfall will undergo explosive intensification this weekend and continue to make news as it’ll have major ramifications across much of the rest of the nation. Low pressure will pull out of the Southwest US early Saturday and begin to rapidly intensify as it starts a push to the northeast and towards the Great Lakes region where it will become an all-out blizzard. This system has the potential to strengthen over a 36-hour period from around 995 millibars (29.38 inches) early Saturday morning to near 973 millibars (28.73 inches) by late Sunday and it can ultimately result in monthly record low pressure readings in the Great Lakes region.
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A strong upper-level wave of energy will push out of the western US and into the center of the nation this weekend and help to intensify low pressure. This rapidly intensifying low pressure system will move from the Southern Plains on Saturday to the Great Lakes region by early where it will result in blizzard conditions. On the eastern side of this storm system, warm and humid air will flow into the Tennessee Valley and generate showers and thunderstorms with some of the rain likely to be heavy at times. Localized flooding will become an increasing concern as we head into and through the upcoming weekend given the already well-saturated grounds in the Tennessee Valley.
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Upper-level wave will move into the Tennessee Valley and combine with a moist southwesterly flow of air giving us a good chance at more rain. Rainfall amounts are, however, expected to be on the low side as upward motion will not be significant. Rain chances will continue on Friday as the next frontal system approaches the region.
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Upper-level high pressure ridging over the southeastern US is combining with an upper trough over the western US to put a squeeze play on the Tennessee Valley which is in the battle zone between the two features. As such, a wet weather pattern has developed for the local area and will persist for several days. There will be plenty of precipitation around here in coming days and this could ultimately result in flood watches to be posted in parts of the Tennessee Valley.
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High pressure across the southeastern US and low pressure over the western US has put the Tennessee Valley in the middle of a battle zone area between these two features. As a result, there will be plenty of precipitation around here in coming days between the warm air to the southeast and cold air to the north and west. It is even possible that a flood watch will be needed across much of the Tennessee Valley given the expected precipitation amounts of potentially a few inches or more over coming days.
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High pressure across the southeastern US and low pressure over the western US has put the Tennessee Valley in the middle of a battle zone area between the two features. As a result, there will be plenty of precipitation in coming days between the warm air to the southeast of here and cold air to the north and west. Temperatures here will stay relatively mild for the next few days with highs in the 50’s and 60’s.
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A wet pattern is shaping up for the Tennessee Valley that will extend from later this weekend into the middle of next week. One wave of low pressure will bring us showers on Saturday night and Sunday and then a second low pressure system will extend the rainfall into the early part of next week. A stalled out frontal boundary zone will allow for more waves of precipitation to push into the area during the middle part of next week.
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High pressure will push to our east today and winds will veer back to the southeast and south and it’ll turn milder and more humid. The chance of showers will increase by later tonight and that threat for rain will continue right through the upcoming weekend in an unfolding active weather pattern.
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There is ample empirical evidence that environmental phenomena in one part of the world can have a causal connection to another part of the world and several of these “climate anomalies” are tracked by meteorologists through teleconnection indices. Several of these teleconnection indices are currently suggesting that a cold and stormy stretch of weather is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region which may result in numerous winter storm threats beginning as early as this weekend and perhaps continuing into the month of March.
The teleconnection indices analyzed here include the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Arctic Oscillation (AO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The MJO is related to a tropical disturbance that propagates around the global tropics on a regular basis. The SOI provides us with information on pressure differences across the Pacific Ocean and on the “El Nino Southern Oscillation” (ENSO) state. The AO and NAO indices provide us with information on the pressure and temperature patterns across the North Atlantic/Arctic region. All of these indices are heading into territory which suggests that a cold and stormy weather pattern is unfolding for the Mid-Atlantic region and it could last awhile.
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