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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

11:40 AM | **Impressive Arctic cold for early March across much of the nation**

Paul Dorian

A widespread outbreak of Arctic air has encompassed much of the nation and it will actually get worse in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US before it gets any better.  Record or near record low temperatures extended across much of the nation both this morning and yesterday morning and there will no doubt be more record-breaking cold over the next couple of mornings.  The next threat for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region comes on Friday, but it currently does not look like a significant event.

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9:00 AM (Sunday) | *****Winter storm gets underway shortly in the Mid-Atlantic region and generates significant snowfall in many suburban locations…widespread Arctic cold to follow*****

Paul Dorian

A significant winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region from this afternoon into early Monday morning. Low pressure will intensify as it takes a track towards the southeastern Virginia coastline by later tonight and then it moves quite rapidly to a position off the southern New England coastline by early Monday. Significant snow accumulations are likely in many northern and western suburbs along I-95; especially, in areas north of the PA/MD border.  An Arctic air mass will flood the eastern half of the nation following the storm with way below-normal temperatures for the first full week of March.

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12:15 PM (Friday) | ****Next wintry storm arrives tonight…third storm arrives on Sunday afternoon and has the potential for a major impact and significant snow…Arctic cold to follow****

Paul Dorian

March has begun more like a lion than a lamb and there are two more storms to deal with over the next few days which can bring additional accumulating snow and ice to the Mid-Atlantic region.  Storm #1 brought accumulating snow to the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and is now pushing off the coastline, but there will be no clearing behind it.  In fact, storm #2 is already gathering strength in the Southeast US and its precipitation shield will expand noticeably later today as it gets invigorated by an upper-level wave of energy. This next storm can start as a wintry mix tonight and a transition to all snow is possible in the overnight hours; especially, to the north and west of I-95.

Storm #3 arrives on Sunday afternoon and has the greatest potential of all for a significant impact as it will be loaded with moisture.  The immediate I-95 corridor region from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC is liable to be the “battle zone” region with significant snow accumulations possible to the north and west and mainly rain to the south and east. There is the potential for 6+ inches of snow to the north and west of Philly and NYC and perhaps even as far south as the far northern and western suburbs of DC - but some details still have to be ironed out.  All of this activity will be followed by an Arctic outbreak for next week across much of the nation.

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12:00 PM | ***March to begin with accumulating snow in the Mid-Atlantic…precipitation threat resumes later Fri. into early Sat.…significant rain, sleet and/or snow likely later Sun. into early Mon.***

Paul Dorian

March is going to begin with some accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic region and it could have an impact on the Friday morning commute in the DC, Philly metro regions.  Low pressure will push towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline in the overnight hours and snow is likely to break out around or shortly after midnight in the DC-to-Philly corridor and it can be mixed with sleet and/or freezing rain at times; especially, south of the PA/MD border.  That low pressure system hangs around the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Friday and gets energized late in the day as upper-level energy passes overhead and this can lead to more rain, sleet and/or snow from late Friday into early Saturday including additional accumulations in some areas.  Yet another wintry precipitation event is likely headed to the Mid-Atlantic region for later Sunday into early Monday. The late weekend system will have plenty of available moisture to it; consequently, lots of potential, but it is unclear as to where the all-important rain/snow line may set up. 

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12:15 PM | **March to come in like a lion…a cold lion…much of the nation to be colder-than-normal next week…snow threat in Mid-Atlantic late Thursday night/early Friday...another threat late Sunday**

Paul Dorian

March may come in like a lion…a cold lion…as about 2/3rds of the nation will be well below normal for early March with the cold wave extending from the Rockies to the New England coastline and to the Gulf coast.  In addition, the calendar turn from February to March will be accompanied by an active weather pattern with multiple waves of energy and an accumulating snow threat in the I-95 corridor late tomorrow night/early Friday and another wintry event possible late in the weekend.

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12:00 PM | ***March to begin with quite an active pattern and multiple shots of snow in the Mid-Atlantic region...perhaps the most important threat will come late Sunday into early Monday***

Paul Dorian

Winter is not going to give up without a fight despite what the groundhog predicted a few weeks ago.  The calendar turns from February to March this Friday and the new month will begin with an active pattern to include additional cold air outbreaks and some snow threats during the next week to ten days. The first threat of snow will take place tomorrow night in the northern part of the Mid-Atlantic region as a “clipper-like” system drops southeastward across the Great Lakes.  Another relatively weak system could generate some snow in the DC-to-Philly corridor late Thursday night/early Friday – just as we begin the month of March.  A cold air outbreak is likely to arrive in the Mid-Atlantic region on Sunday and low pressure may form near the Southeast US coastline right along the cold frontal boundary zone. This could very well turn into the most important threat of all for snow in the Mid-Atlantic region as signs point to a northward push of moisture along the east coast late Sunday into Monday with fresh, cold air in place. Finally, as a vigorous wave of upper-level energy drops into the Great Lakes region early next week, the another system could develop near the east coast, but it is certainly too early to say if that will come close enough to the Mid-Atlantic to produce snow.

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11:45 AM | ***Explosive intensification of low pressure this weekend to have major ramifications including a blizzard in the Great Lakes and potentially damaging wind gusts in the Mid-Atlantic***

Paul Dorian

Mid-Atlantic/Midwest/Northeast US: A storm that has already been a news making event in the Southwest US for its unusual snowfall will undergo explosive intensification this weekend and continue to make news as it’ll have major ramifications across much of the rest of the nation.  Low pressure will pull out of the Southwest US early Saturday and begin to rapidly intensify as it starts a push to the northeast and towards the Great Lakes region where it will become an all-out blizzard. This system has the potential to strengthen over a 36-hour period from around 995 millibars (29.38 inches) early Saturday morning to near 973 millibars (28.73 inches) by late Sunday and it can ultimately result in monthly record low pressure readings in the Great Lakes region.

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10:50 AM | *Powerful Great Lakes storm this weekend with blizzard conditions to bring rain to the Mid-Atlantic region and a spring tease*

Paul Dorian

A rapidly intensifying low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes region this weekend from the southern Plains and it could very well become a news making event with wide ranging ramifications over a large area.  This system has the potential to deepen to around 978 millibars (28.88 inches) or so by the time it reaches the Great Lakes early Sunday which may be close to monthly record low pressure values for portions of Michigan.  Blizzard conditions are likely to accompany this powerful storm system this weekend over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes.  Farther east, rain will spread northeastward from the Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys and into the Mid-Atlantic region later Saturday and continue into early Sunday. Once the rain ends on Sunday, temperatures have a chance to spike to 60 degrees or higher in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC providing us with a spring tease, but the warm up won’t last too long as colder air returns for the early part of next week.

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10:30 AM (Monday) | ****A major mid-week mess is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region with significant accumulating snow on the front end in many areas before a changeover to ice, rain****

Paul Dorian

A major winter storm will impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Wednesday with significant accumulating snow on the front end in many areas before a changeover to ice and rain. An initial low pressure system will head towards the Great Lakes on Wednesday and a secondary low pressure will form near the Mid-Atlantic coastline.  Another key player will be strong cold high pressure that will be situated to our north on Wednesday and it will lock-in cold, dense low-level air - at least at the onset of this mid-week event.  Snow should break out in the early morning hours on Wednesday in the DC metro region, then by the mid-to-late morning hours in Philly, and finally during the mid-day or early afternoon hours in NYC. 

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10:20 AM Sunday | ***A wintry mess from late today into early Monday…strong storm by the middle of the week with significant snow accumulations possible on the front end***

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will head our way later and although it is a fairly fast-mover, it is likely to have some impact on the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, to the north and west of the big cities.  Snow, ice and rain is likely in areas to the north of the PA/MD border from late today into early Monday and a mix of ice and rain is expected to the south of there. Road conditions can become slick in all areas during the nighttime hours and into early Monday morning with possible small accumulations of snow and/or ice. By the middle of the week, we’ll have to deal with a stronger storm and this one could result in significant snow accumulations for much of the Mid-Atlantic region followed by ice and rain.

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