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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

7:00 AM | *Looks like a pretty decent week in the Mid-Atlantic*

Paul Dorian

The slow-moving upper-level low pressure system that trekked across the country last week is just now exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coastline and it will be close enough today to impact the region with some clouds and maybe a sprinkle or two. High pressure takes over for Tuesday, but then a cold front can bring some shower activity here tomorrow night - perhaps even an isolated thunderstorm. After nice weather at mid-week, the combination of northern and southern stream systems could result in some rain here from Thursday night into Friday.

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7:00 AM | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat later today and tonight...an unstable weekend to follow***

Paul Dorian

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift today to the eastern seaboard with severe thunderstorm activity possible all the way from the Mid-Atlantic to Florida. The heaviest and steadiest rain will occur in the overnight hours with up to a few inches possible in spots and localized flooding is a serious concern given the already well-saturated grounds. The main area of rain exits off the east coast early tomorrow morning; however, the rest of the weekend will remain quite unstable as a strong upper-level low painfully grinds its way across the region. As a result, instability showers are quite likely here on Saturday and there can be an isolated thunderstorm or two. By Sunday, the upper-level system will be overhead in the Mid-Atlantic region leading to the possibility of lingering clouds and additional instability showers on Easter Day. On Monday, this wave of energy in the upper atmosphere that has impacted much of the nation in recent days will finally exit off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

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11:15 AM (Thursday) | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat later today and tonight greatest in the Deep South…threat shifts to the east coast late tomorrow and tomorrow night***

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next 24 hours as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist tropical air will result in a severe weather threat later today and tonight in the Deep South.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for hail and isolated tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the southern states and localized flooding is a concern as grounds are well saturated.  The threat for heavy rainfall and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard late tomorrow and tomorrow night with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity extending from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

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7:00 AM | ***Heavy rain and severe weather threat later tomorrow and tomorrow night***

Paul Dorian

The threat of heavy rain and severe weather will shift to the eastern seaboard late Friday and Friday night with severe thunderstorm activity possible from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida. While the steadiest and heaviest rain will end by early Saturday, there will likely be some instability shower activity as the upper-level low will still be positioned to the west of the region. By Easter Sunday, the powerful upper-level system and main culprit of this upcoming active weather will begin to weaken, but the atmosphere will remain unstable enough for the chance of additional showers. High pressure ridging takes control on Monday and temperatures will climb well into the 70’s and there should be plenty of sunshine to start the new work week.

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12:45 PM | ***Significant weather event next few days to include heavy rain and severe thunderstorms***

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will intensify over the next couple of days as it slowly grinds its way across the southern states.  The combination of this strong wave of energy in the upper atmosphere and an influx of very moist low-level air will result in a severe weather threat today in the region from Texas-to-Kansas and later tomorrow across Mississippi, Alabama and perhaps as far north as Tennessee.  In addition to the severe weather threat which includes the potential for large hail and tornadoes, heavy rainfall is likely later today in the south-central states and then on Thursday across the southeastern US.  Any heavy rainfall can result in localized flooding as much of the eastern half of the nation is experiencing well-saturated ground conditions. The heavy rainfall and severe weather threat will reach the eastern seaboard on Friday afternoon and evening with the possibility of strong-to-severe thunderstorms from the Mid-Atlantic region to Florida.

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7:00 AM | **Heavy rain event later Friday into early Saturday and it may include severe thunderstorms**

Paul Dorian

A back door cool front passed through the region last night and it’ll turn a bit cooler today with a low-level flow of air out of the northeast. This same front will turn around by early tomorrow and advance to the north as a warm front. As a result, it’ll turn much warmer on Thursday and stay quite warm on Friday along with increasing south-to-southwest winds as we close out the work week. A strong cold front supported by vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere will grudgingly works its way to the east coast at the end of the week and this will result in a soaking rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Friday into early Saturday. In addition to the heavy rainfall, there is quite likely to be a threat for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in much of the Mid-Atlantic region later Friday and Friday night. As the upper-level low crawls to the Mid-Atlantic coastline this weekend, it'll remain somewhat unstable on Saturday with some clouds and possible lingering showers, but skies should become partly sunny on Easter Sunday.

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2:10 PM | *Threat of heavy rain and severe weather in the I-95 corridor from later Friday into early Saturday*

Paul Dorian

Deep upper-level low pressure will slowly grind its way to the east coast late this weekend and during the upcoming weekend and the result is likely to be a major rain event for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor from later Friday into early Saturday.  In addition, vigorous energy in the upper atmosphere will combine with a push of tropical moisture to increase chances for severe weather in the I-95 corridor from later Friday into Friday night to include the possibility of isolated tornadoes.  As the deep upper-level low inches overhead on Saturday, instability showers could form, but Sunday should see some improvement as the system finally begins to weaken and pushes off the Mid-Atlantic coastline.

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7:00 AM | *Heavy rain event likely from Friday into late Friday night and there can be strong-to-severe thunderstorms included*

Paul Dorian

The upcoming Easter weekend will be somewhat unsettled and it may be preceded by a deluge from later Friday into late Friday night. High pressure builds into the area today and winds will remain noticeable, but less of a factor than yesterday. A frontal system will approach the region in the overnight hours with the buildup of clouds and it’ll stall nearby keeping the threat for showers alive from later Wednesday into Thursday. This front will advance to the north of here as a warm front by later Thursday and we'll turn warmer and winds will intensify noticeably to close out the work week. In addition, as a strong cold front slowly works its way towards the east coast, rain will break out on Friday and it is likely to turn into a heavy rain event. Thunderstorms are also possible during this late week heavy rain event which can reach strong-to-severe levels. Instability showers are possible this weekend, but it doesn't look like a total washout.

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7:00 AM | *A significant rain event is setting up for the end of the week*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will pull away to the northeast today and drag a cold front through the region which will result in clouds and lingering showers giving way to some sunshine. Winds will pick up in intensity out of the NW as drier, colder air moves in following the frontal passage and gusts to 50 mph are possible. It’ll stay dry on Tuesday, but a warm front could bring some clouds our way on Tuesday night. A strong low pressure system and its attendant frontal systems will likely bring another round of rain and thunderstorms here at week’s end and this could be a significant rain event.

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8:50 PM (Saturday) | ****Threat of heavy rain and severe weather in the I-95 corridor from late Sunday into early Monday morning****

Paul Dorian

A powerful storm system will push towards the Great Lakes on Sunday with accumulating snow on its northwest side in places likely Chicago, Illinois and severe weather and downpours will be a threat in its warm sector to the southeast of the storm track.  The threat for downpours and severe weather will be “enhanced” across the Ohio Valley on Sunday and indeed there can be some heavy rain and severe thunderstorm activity that works its way into the I-95 corridor from later tomorrow afternoon into early Monday - including the possibility of isolated tornadoes..

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