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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: DC

9:30 AM (Thursday) | ***Severe weather threat later today and tonight includes the risk of tornadoes***

Paul Dorian

One of the most well-known tornado outbreaks in Pennsylvania took place at the end of May in 1985 and, quite ominously, there are some similarities between the pattern then and the one setting up for later today and tonight.  Similar to the setup back in 1985, an upper-level disturbance will drop southeastward from the Great Lakes and combine with an influx of very warm and humid air to raise the chances for severe weather here which may very well include the risk of tornadoes. 

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7:00 AM | **Potential for strong-to-severe thunderstorms later today/tonight**

Paul Dorian

A warm front passed through the region in the overnight hours and this will set the stage for a much warmer and more humid day in the Mid-Atlantic region. In addition, as a cold front approaches early tonight, this change in air mass will set the stage for potentially strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity late today and tonight across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. Low pressure has pushed northeastward out of the central Plains and into the western Great Lakes and it will take a sharp right turn later today and heads towards the Northeast US. This low pressure system will strengthen as it approaches the NE US into what is likely to be a rather favorable environment for severe weather, primarily in the form of damaging winds and large hail. High pressure takes over on Friday and the work week will end with lowering humidity and comfortably warm conditions.

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11:00 AM (Wednesday) | **Potential severe thunderstorm activity late tomorrow/tomorrow night in the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast US and it includes the risk of tornadoes**

Paul Dorian

This may not be the conventional pattern for severe weather in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US, but it bears close watching.  An upper-level disturbance and associated surface low pressure system will actually travel northeastward later today from the Northern Plains to the western Great Lakes and then take a sharp right turn to the southeast and head right towards the Northeast US.  At the same time, a warm frontal system will pass from south-to-north through the Mid-Atlantic region in the overnight hours and this will set the stage for a much warmer and more humid day on Thursday.  All of this could very well end up resulting in severe thunderstorms late tomorrow and tomorrow night across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US with damaging wind gusts and large hail as the primary severe weather risks and there is certainly the potential for tornadoes as well.

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7:00 AM | *Another comfortable day with high pressure in control...possible strong storms late Thursday*

Paul Dorian

High pressure to our north will keep control of our weather for another day with sunshine and pleasant conditions, but a warm front will arrive in the late night hours. As a result, the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase after midnight and Thursday promises to be a warmer and more humid day with a continued chance for rain and some of the thunderstorms late in the day or tomorrow night can be on the strong-to-severe side. A cold front will then arrive early Friday and high pressure will build in as we close out the work week.

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7:00 AM | *A very comfortable air mass for the next couple of days*

Paul Dorian

A cold front moved through the region late yesterday and its passage has ushered in a much more comfortable air mass for the next couple of days. High pressure will build into the region today and nice weather will continue on Wednesday as well. A warm front will arrive late tomorrow night and it can be accompanied by some shower and thunderstorm activity going into the day on Thursday. It’ll turn warmer during the second half of the week with highs well up in the 80’s.

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7:00 AM | *A few showers later today as cold front arrives...maybe a strong thunderstorm...warmest yet on Sunday afternoon*

Paul Dorian

A cold front will move through the region later and it can be accompanied by a few showers, maybe a strong thunderstorm or two. High pressure will build in for the weekend which promises to be warm along with some sunshine each day, but a few showers cannot be ruled out on either day. Another front arrives on Monday and it may result in a few more showers for the Mid-Atlantic region, maybe a thunderstorm.

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7:00 AM | *Another front can bring us some shower activity later tomorrow...maybe a thunderstorm or two*

Paul Dorian

Today will be a pretty decent day in the Mid-Atlantic region following a frontal passage in the overnight hours. Another front will move through the region late tomorrow to be followed by weak high pressure for the weekend. There can be showers tomorrow afternoon and evening as the front arrives in the region and perhaps a thunderstorm or two. The weekend looks quite warm with some sunshine each day, but a few showers cannot be ruled out on either day and more showers are possible on Monday as another front approaches.

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7:00 AM | *Much improvement today as sunshine returns*

Paul Dorian

The second half of the week and upcoming weekend will be noticeably warmer than the unseasonably chilly conditions of the past few days. As a result of sunshine today, temperatures will respond nicely and jump to the 70 degree mark for highs this afternoon. A frontal system will arrive late tonight and it may be accompanied by some shower activity and then another frontal system on Friday could result in a few showers and maybe a thunderstorm. Warm weather is likely this weekend with highs generally near the 80 degree mark on each day.

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7:00 AM | *Still somewhat unsettled in the Mid-Atlantic as upper-level low only slowly pulls away*

Paul Dorian

It’ll remain somewhat unsettled here today as upper-level low pressure only grudgingly pulls away from the area. As a result, there will be some clouds around and a couple of lingering showers are possible. High pressure will build into the area tonight and Wednesday promises to be a milder day with some sunshine. Another frontal system will come our way tomorrow night and it can be accompanied by a few showers and another front may result in the same on Friday. Warmer weather is likely this weekend with a run at 80 degrees likely by Sunday afternoon.

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