A broad area of low pressure is drifting westward this morning over the Gulf of Mexico and there is not yet a well-defined center of circulation. As atmospheric conditions become more favorable and the system moves over warmer-than-normal water, intensification will become more likely and tropical storm status could be attained by later tonight or early tomorrow and perhaps (weak) hurricane status can be reached by later tomorrow night. A turn to the northwest by the early part of the weekend could bring this tropical system into central Louisiana and it’ll likely remain a relatively slow-mover raising the chances for substantial amounts of rainfall across southern Louisiana and parts of Mississippi as well over the next few days. Elsewhere, there is a threat this afternoon and tonight in the I-95 corridor for strong-to-severe thunderstorms – any one of these storms can bring heavy downpours to an already-soaked part of the country.
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A strong cold front will approach the region later today and bring with it isolated morning showers and thunderstorms and likely a round of late day and evening showers and thunderstorms. Any late day/evening thunderstorm can be strong-to-severe with heavy rainfall and potential localized flash flooding. The front drops southeast of here on Friday, but a residual shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out and the end of the work week will continue to feature quite warm conditions. Elsewhere, intensification was slow overnight in a tropical system now over the Gulf of Mexico, but that should become more rapid over the next 24 hours. As such, it is likely this system will reach named tropical storm status later today or tonight (to be called Barry) and it could reach hurricane status by the weekend. It appears this system will drift west for much of today and then take a turn to the north-to-northwest by the weekend and perhaps end up making landfall in central Louisiana. Tremendous rainfall amounts are likely with “Barry” in the central Gulf coast region; especially, over southern Louisiana where more than a foot can fall over the next couple of days and the Mississippi River is already running at high levels from springtime rains and snow melt. Looking ahead, it is possible that the remains of Barry has an impact here in a week or so as it potentially takes a track from the southern states into the Mid-Atlantic region.
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High pressure will remain in control of the weather around here for another day before it shifts off the eastern seaboard opening the door for low pressure and its associated cold front to impact the region late tomorrow. It’ll be quite warm again today with plenty of sunshine and overall humidity will become more noticeable on Thursday ahead of this next frontal system. That front may result in some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity here later tomorrow and tomorrow night before clearing the east coast at the end of the work week. Elsewhere, a tropical system now over the northern Gulf of Mexico is very likely to intensify into a named (Barry) tropical storm by the end of the week. This developing system could very well have a direct impact this weekend on the Texas/Louisiana border region as a category 1 or 2 hurricane...we’ll continue to closely monitor the situation.
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High pressure will control the weather around here for the next couple of days before shifting off the east coast later in the week. It’ll be quite warm with plenty of sunshine today and tomorrow and then overall humidity will become more noticeable on Thursday ahead of the next frontal system. That front may result in some strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity here late Thursday or Thursday night before clearing the coast at the end of the work week. Elsewhere, a tropical system could intensify into a named tropical storm (Barry) over the Gulf of Mexico by later in the week and we’ll closely monitor the situation. Looking ahead, signs point to a heat wave next week in much of the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region.
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A disturbance will bring more heavy rain to the region; especially, during the morning hours and there can be a thunderstorm mixed in as well. Watch for some serious localized flooding conditions and as always, "turn around, don't drown". Building high pressure will result in some clearing later tonight and the next couple of days will feature plenty of sunshine and warm conditions. The high pressure system will shift to the east of here by later Wednesday and a cold front will cross the area later Thursday into Friday and there can be some strong thunderstorm activity associated with the late week frontal system. Elsewhere, low pressure now situated over the Southeast US is likely to drop southward to over the Gulf of Mexico and it could very well intensify into a tropical storm later in the week.
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A weak frontal system has stalled out nearby and it’ll keep us unsettled for the next few days as it meanders around the Mid-Atlantic region. This front will push north on Friday as a warm front and then a strong cool front will arrive in the region by Saturday night. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will be likely today and tonight and perhaps even more numerous on Friday and Saturday and severe thunderstorm activity will be a threat late Saturday and Saturday night. Following the frontal passage, it’ll turn less humid on Sunday and slightly cooler and relatively comfortable weather will begin the new work week on Monday and Tuesday.
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High pressure slid off the coast yesterday allowing for warmer and more humid air to push into the Mid-Atlantic region from the Tennessee Valley and it’ll stay quite warm and very humid here right through the first half of the upcoming weekend. A weak frontal system has stalled out nearby and it’ll keep us unsettled for the next few days as it meanders around the Mid-Atlantic region. As a result, we’ll have scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, a bit more widespread on Thursday and Thursday night and then even more numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely on Friday and Saturday. Any shower or thunderstorm that forms over the next few days can produce some heavy downpours and there is a chance for severe weather late Saturday and early Saturday night as a strong cool front arrives. Following the frontal passage, it'll turn less humid and slightly cooler on Sunday and relatively nice weather conditions are likely on Monday and Tuesday.
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High pressure sat on top of the region yesterday providing us with comfortable weather conditions, but it’ll turn hotter and more humid later today as a weak disturbance and associated cool front approach the region. That frontal system will then stall nearby on Wednesday and then it bounces back to the north as a warm front later in the week. As a result, we’ll have somewhat unsettled weather for the reminder of the week and upcoming weekend with a daily shot at showers and thunderstorms primarily focused in the late day and evening hours. Any thunderstorm that forms in the type of weather pattern can be on the strong side with locally heavy rainfall. A stronger cool front could push through the area later in the weekend perhaps leading to less humid and slightly cooler conditions by early next week.
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The week will start off comfortably warm in the Mid-Atlantic region with relatively low humidity levels, but as high pressure pushes off the east coast over the next couple of days, the heat and humidity will build into the area. After highs today in the mid 80's, it looks like we'll climb into the 90's for the remainder of the week. With the uptick in moisture after today, there will also be an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms for the middle and latter parts of the week.
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The warmest stretch of weather so far this season will continue for the next two days with highs in the 90's, but it'll turn slightly cooler less humid by the time Monday rolls around. There can be isolated thunderstorm later today and early tonight and an even better chance is likely late tomorrow as a strong cold front arrives. There is a chance that some of the thunderstorms late tomorrow and early tomorrow night reach strong-to-severe levels. After a more comfortable start to the new work week, the heat and humidity will build up by the middle of next week.
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