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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

8:20 AM | Strong storm late tomorrow then Irene late Saturday/Sunday

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast


Mostly sunny, pleasantly warm, highs in the low-to-mid 80’s


Partly cloudy, a bit more humid compared to recent nights, lows in the mid 60’s


Partly sunny, very warm and humid with an excellent chance for afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms that may even reach severe levels to include heavy downpours, near 90


Partly sunny, still rather humid, warm, chance for a shower or thunderstorm later in the day or at night, low-to-mid 80’s


Increasing clouds, humid, chance for showers and thunderstorms late in the day or at night depending on the track of Irene, potential exists for substantial rain amounts and strong winds, near 80


Mostly cloudy, tropical humidity with the threat for more showers and thunderstorms, potential exists for substantial rain amounts and strong winds, upper 70’s


Partly sunny, still humid, highs near 80


Hurricane Irene continues to spin its way through the Bahamas. It is continuing to slowly strengthen and has now reached major hurricane status. My current thinking has Irene making landfall in eastern North Carolina on Saturday - probably as a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) – and then it is likely to head to near the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay by late Saturday night. By Sunday afternoon, Irene will likely be just off the New Jersey coastline on its way up to eastern New England while maintaining category 1 hurricane status. This potential track is somewhat similar to Hurricane Floyd during September of 1999 and also similar to the track of the “great hurricane of 1944” (unnamed) – both storms dumped heavy amounts of rainfall along the coast and also into inland sections. Heavy rain and strong winds are possible here in the Mid-Atlantic region from Irene in the late Saturday through Sunday time period. Hurricane force winds are likely to be recorded along the coast from North Carolina to Maine. All of the recent heavy rains will increase the threat for flooding and, to make matters worse, a strong frontal system is likely to cause some more heavy downpours around here late tomorrow or tomorrow night. Stay tuned for updates.