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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: PHL

7:00 AM | *One last hurrah from Florence...nice for the second half of the week*

Paul Dorian

One last hurrah today from what remains of Hurricane Florence as it merges with a frontal system and produces showers and thunderstorms in the I-95 corridor. Some of the rain can be heavy at times today and some of the storms that form can get quite strong with gusty winds as the remnants pass by just to our northwest. After the remnants of Florence exit off of the Northeast US coastline late tonight, high pressure will take over here for the Wednesday-to-Friday time period. We’ll enjoy generally dry and sunny conditions during the second half of the week and then the next front will approach on Friday night from our northwest. The tropics have become generally quiet in the Atlantic Basin and should stay so for the next several days. In fact, as of late Monday, there were no tropical storms/hurricanes/cyclones anywhere around the world which is quite unusual in mid-September and it hasn’t been so since the end of July. There are signs, however, for a resumption of tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin later this month and/or during the month of October.

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12:40 PM | *An impact on the Mid-Atlantic region by the remains of Florence*

Paul Dorian

The remnants of Florence are centered over the Ohio Valley at mid-day and showers and thunderstorms are wrapping around the system and now impacting much of the Mid-Atlantic region.  The threat for occasional rain and thunderstorms will continue in the I-95 corridor into the early part of tomorrow night when a frontal system will finally clear things out.  Some of the rain will be heavy at times and some of the storms can be on the strong side.  In fact, accelerating tropical systems of this nature sometimes generate tornadic-producing thunderstorms on its east side so that may also become a threat over the next 24-36 hours.

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7:00 AM | *The remnants of Florence to impact us from later today into tomorrow night*

Paul Dorian

The remnants of Florence have begun a looping pattern and are accelerating to the northeast today from southern West Virginia and should push off the Northeast US coastline by late tomorrow night. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will impact the I-95 corridor from later today into tomorrow night. Some of the rain can be heavy at times and some of the storms that form can get quite strong with gusty winds as the remnants pass by just to our northwest. Once Florence exits, high pressure will take over for the Wednesday-to-Friday time period and we’ll enjoy generally dry and sunny conditions. A frontal system will then approach from the northwest at the end of the week.

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11:50 AM (Friday) | **Hurricane Florence has nearly grinded to a halt**

Paul Dorian

Florence made landfall earlier today near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it has nearly grinded to a halt in recent hours with movement of only 3 mph to the west-southwest. This extremely slow movement of Florence will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than two feet of rain by the time all is said and done. Florence will push inland on Saturday and cross over the state of South Carolina in a weakened state and then begin a looping process on Sunday. This looping process will begin with an acceleration to the northwest by early next week and then an even more rapid movement to the northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this potential break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and during part of the month of October.

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7:00 AM | *Florence now bashing the Carolinas...an impact here early next week**

Paul Dorian

Florence has made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina as a category 1 hurricane and it will crawl along the coastline over the next 24 hours. This slow movement will lead to an extended period of heavy rainfall and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas and some spots will see more than 20 inches of rainfall. Florence will push inland this weekend and cross over South Carolina in a weakened state and begin a looping process which will begin with an acceleration to the northwest and then to the northeast. Florence will finally push off the Northeast US coastline by the middle of next week and the Atlantic Basin tropical scene may become relatively quiet for awhile. However, after this possible break in the action, the tropical scene is likely to become more active again during the latter part of September and for part of October. As far as the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor is concerned with respect to the remains of Florence, an impact here will take place in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame with some heavy rainfall and strong wind gusts.

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12:30 PM | **Hurricane Florence closing in on the Carolinas…the “slowing down” process has begun and Florence will painfully crawl down the Carolina coastline**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence continues to close in on the Carolina coastline and it will arrive in the NC/SC border region on Friday. Hurricane Florence has weakened during the past 24 hours and is now rated as a category 2 storm. The “slowing down” process of Florence has begun and the hurricane will grind nearly to a halt when it reaches the coastline and painfully crawl along to the southwest during the next couple of days.

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7:00 AM | **Hurricane Florence closing in on the Carolina coastline now as a cat 2**

Paul Dorian

Florence continues to move towards the Carolina coastline now as a cat 2 hurricane and it should get quite close by early tomorrow. As it approaches the coast, it will slow down dramatically as it becomes influenced by strong blocking upper-level high pressure to the north. From this location, Florence will likely take a turn to the southwest and then painfully crawl down the Carolina coastline leading to an extended period of heavy rain and strong winds for coastal sections of the Carolinas as well as nearby inland locations. Over the weekend, Florence will then likely push inland over South Carolina and Georgia in a somewhat weakened state and then it’ll begin a looping process in the early part of next week. This loop will begin with a push to the northwest and then a turn to the north and ultimately, a push to the northeast before finally exiting the US around the middle of next week - perhaps off of New Jersey. Believe it or not, the heaviest rains in the Mid-Atlantic region from Florence – or, more specifically, from what will be the remains of Florence - may actually come in the late Monday - early Wednesday time period as it loops back to the east and interacts with a frontal system.

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12:00 PM | **Major Hurricane Florence headed towards Carolina coastline where it will grind to a halt**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence remains a category 4 (major) storm at mid-day and is currently moving northwest at 15 mph and is headed for the Carolina coastline. It should arrive near the North and South Carolina border region by early Friday where it will become influenced by blocking upper-level high pressure to the north. As a result, Florence will slow down dramatically and drift southwestward along the Carolina coastline. By the latter part of the weekend, Florence is likely to push inland over South Carolina or Georgia and then eventually loop back around to the east. We may have to deal with Florence until the middle of next week before it likely finally exits off the US east coast - perhaps off of New Jersey.

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8:00 AM | **Major Hurricane Florence headed towards the North/South Carolina border region**

Paul Dorian

Florence continues to move at a pretty good clip this morning at 17 mph in a west-to-northwest direction and towards the Carolina coastline as a major (category 4) hurricane. It is likely to reach the North/South Carolina border region early Friday and slow down dramatically as it encounters blocking high pressure to the north. From this point, Florence is likely to crawl southwestward along the Carolina coastline leading to an extended period of heavy rain and strong winds for coastal sections in the Carolinas. By late in the weekend or early next week, Florence is likely to head inland in a weakened state - perhaps as far south as over Georgia – and then eventually loop back around to the east before likely finally exiting the US around the middle of next week. Believe it or not, the heaviest rains in the Mid-Atlantic region from Florence - or more specifically what will become the remains of Florence - may actually come next Tuesday and/or Wednesday as it loops back to the east and interacts with a frontal system.

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5:00 AM | **"Major" Hurricane Florence headed towards the Carolina coastline**

Paul Dorian

Hurricane Florence has rapidly intensified over the past 24 hours from category 2 status to “major” category 4. As Florence moves over very warm waters over the next couple of days, it should remain as a “major” hurricane and a climb to category 5 status is not out of the question. All signs continue to point to a WNW track for Florence over the next few days with a possible landfall late Thursday/early Friday along the Carolina coastline. Once Florence reaches the Carolinas, it’ll run into an “atmospheric road block” as very strong high pressure ridging is setting up to the north across the northwestern Atlantic and southeastern part of Canada. As a result of the slow down, Florence is likely to generate tremendous amounts of rainfall in the Carolinas and perhaps into at least parts of the Mid-Atlantic region (e.g., Virginia) over an extended period of time.

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