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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

11:10 AM | ***First significant winter weather event of the season is on the way***

Paul Dorian

The first significant winter weather event of the season is on the way for much of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US. Low pressure will intensify along the Mid-Atlantic coastline on Thursday and impact the region from early tomorrow into early Friday. Accumulations of snow and ice are quite likely from this first of the season winter storm – even in the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC. Be prepared for slippery road conditions both tomorrow and tomorrow night as surface temperatures will not get too far above freezing during much of this upcoming event.

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11:35 AM | ***First winter storm of the season with some accumulations on the table for the big city metro regions***

Paul Dorian

In what promises to be a cold and snowy winter with a quick start (“2018-2019 Winter Outlook”), the first winter storm of the season for the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US is looking increasingly likely for Thursday/Thursday night as low pressure intensifies along the east coast. This coastal storm may end up impacting the region for an extended period of time from early Thursday into Friday as it takes on a “double-barrel” type of structure near the Mid-Atlantic coastline. Accumulations of snow and ice are quite possible from this early season winter storm – even into the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC - and significant amounts are likely across interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US.

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12:00 PM | **Wintry precipitation threat on Thursday as strong coastal storm develops**

Paul Dorian

Our active and cold weather pattern of recent days will continue through this week and there is the real possibility of some wintry precipitation for the first time this season in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. Moisture associated with a strong coastal storm will arrive in this area on Thursday and cold air will be locked in place and anchored by sprawling high pressure over the Northeast US. As a result, the threat exists in the metro regions of DC, Philly and NYC of sleet, freezing rain and/or snow at the onset of this upcoming late week event with the highest probabilities of something frozen in the northern and western suburbs. Following the passage of the late week storm, yet another cold air mass will drop southeastward from central Canada and into the Mid-Atlantic region during the upcoming weekend.

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11:30 AM | **An extended stretch of winter-like cold for much of the nation**

Paul Dorian

Much colder-than-normal air has already infiltrated much of the northern US and soon it will extend to the east coast.  This change to colder-than-normal conditions will stick around for awhile as a reinforcing shot of Arctic air will plunge southward into the Northern Plains by early next week and then spread eastward to the east seaboard on Tuesday night and Wednesday.  In terms of precipitation, another soaking rain event is coming to the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday with the heaviest and steadiest rain likely to fall during the PM hours.  Once this system passes by to the northeast of here late tomorrow night, winds will intensify and cold air will pour in from the northwest just in time for the weekend. A second storm is likely to pull out of the Gulf states early next week and produce more soaking rain here in the I-95 corridor on Monday night and Tuesday as it intensifies into a powerful system. This system will be followed by very strong - and potentially damaging - NW winds on Tuesday night and Wednesday and the influx of another very cold air mass for this time of year.

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11:25 AM | *An active weather pattern with a winter-like look will bring us a couple of cold shots and storms in coming days*

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing during the past several weeks in the Mid-Atlantic region is showing no signs of letting up and will take on a winter-like look in coming days with two cold shots and two storms. The first storm will arrive on Friday with more soaking rain for the already waterlogged DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and this system will be followed by a cold shot for the weekend with temperatures way below-normal for this time of year. Another storm is likely to pull out of the Gulf of Mexico region early next week and head right towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and this system will have some cold air in place before its arrival. As a result, while more soaking rain is likely in the immediate I-95 corridor on this storm’s front end in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame, there may be enough entrenched cold air for snow across interior higher elevation locations of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US. This second storm system will then usher in a second cold air mass by the middle of next week and as the cold air pours in, there is the chance for a rain-changing-to-snow scenario in some areas.

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2:45 PM | *An early season Arctic blast to arrive in the eastern US by the middle of next week*

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the eastern US during the past several weeks will continue through this week with a strong cold frontal passage later today and then another low pressure system to deal with on Friday. That late week low pressure system will usher in a much colder-than-normal air mass for the weekend, but that “initial” cold shot looks pale in comparison to what might arrive in the eastern US by the middle of next week. An Arctic air mass that originates in Siberia looks like it will push across the North Pole this weekend and then drop southward through Canada early next week. At the same time, low pressure is likely to push out of the Gulf of Mexico and towards the Mid-Atlantic coastline and potentially generate yet another soaking rain event in the Monday night/Tuesday time frame. The passage of this storm system will become the mechanism to allow the Arctic air mass to spread to the east coast in the Tuesday night/Wednesday time frame.

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12:25 PM | *Widespread blast of winter-like cold this weekend/early next week for much of the nation*

Paul Dorian

The active weather pattern that we have been experiencing in the eastern US during the past several weeks will continue through this week with a coastal low pressure system to deal with today, a strong cold front on Tuesday, and then another low pressure system to end the work week on Friday. That late week low pressure system will usher in a colder-than-normal air mass for much of the eastern half of the nation for the upcoming weekend and it looks like there will be reinforcing winter-like air mass early next week - likely the coldest air mass so far this season. There is an outside chance that a storm forms near the Mid-Atlantic coastline early next week with the initial cold air mass already in place and a second blast of cold air on the way. This scenario could even lead to some snow in interior sections of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast US during the first half of next week.

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11:50 AM | *Large scale precipitation event next few days to impact much of the nation*

Paul Dorian

A strong cold front will slowly push across the nation over the next few days and it’ll have an important impact on a wide area from the Rockies to the eastern seaboard. A powerful digging jet stream in the upper atmosphere will help to carve out a deep upper-level trough by late in the week and the result of this overall unfolding weather pattern will be heavy snow across the Rockies, heavy rain in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and a severe weather threat across much of the southern US. Rain will spread into the eastern US by Thursday night as the front continues to slide slowly to the east. The rain will likely continue into Friday night in the eastern US - possibly heavy at times - as low pressure forms along the frontal boundary zone.

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11:45 AM | *East coast storm to produce heavy rain and strong winds in the Mid-Atlantic region and frozen precipitation across interior, higher elevation locations of the Northeast US*

Paul Dorian

Low pressure will intensify near the Carolina coastline late today and then slowly push northward to a position over central New Jersey by mid-day Saturday and the result will be a soaking rain event in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor. The ingredients are in place for this significant rain event including an entrenched cold and dry air mass in the Northeast US, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and an intensifying upper-level trough in the eastern US. Strong winds will also become a major factor with this intensifying storm system; especially, along coastal sections where gusts past 60 mph are possible between midnight and noon on Saturday and gusts up to 50 mph are possible across interior locations. The air in place across the Northeast US will be cold enough during this upcoming event for some frozen precipitation in interior, higher elevation spots from West Virginia/western Virginia-to-northern Pennsylvania-to-northern New England.

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2:00 PM | *Significant storm to impact the region from later tomorrow into Saturday…second system produces additional showers late Sunday night/early Monday*

Paul Dorian

The ingredients are falling into place for a significant rain event in the Mid-Atlantic region that should get underway later tomorrow as intensifying low pressure heads up along the eastern seaboard. The combination of an entrenched cold and dry air mass, copious amounts of moisture to our southwest, and vigorous upper-level energy dropping southeastward towards the eastern US will result in a soaking rain event in the Mid-Atlantic that could yield 2+ inches in some spots by early next week. A second wave of energy in the upper atmosphere is likely to produce additional showers in the late Sunday night/early Monday time frame.

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