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Blog

Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

12:00 PM | **Accumulating snow likely in much of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday night…significant weekend storm to bring rain, ice and/or snow...Arctic blast follows**

Paul Dorian

An active weather pattern is setting up for the next several days with two systems to monitor and an Arctic blast by the early part of next week.  Low pressure will push out of the Ohio Valley on Thursday and likely produce accumulating snow in much of the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday night.  That snow could end as a period of light rain or freezing rain early Friday which could make for an interesting AM commute to end the work week.  The weekend will feature a strong cold frontal system sliding towards the east coast and a strong storm will form along the boundary zone.  That system may bring us some rain, but snow and/or ice are possible at the front end and also on the back end…many, many details still have to ironed out. What is quite certain is that the coldest air mass of the season will arrive late Sunday on the heels of the weekend storm and Monday promises to be very cold.

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11:45 AM | ***Get ready…cold, stormy pattern getting locked in…weekend major storm threat in transition to some very cold air***

Paul Dorian

As we approach the middle part of January, it is time for a mid-winter review and many of the players on the field suggest a cold and stormy pattern is setting up for the central and eastern US and it could last well into February – perhaps even into March.  Two of the big players on the field include a weak-to-moderate “Modoki” El Nino in the central part of the Pacific Ocean and a blob of warmer-than-normal water in the northeast Pacific.  In addition, there has been a significant stratospheric warming event in recent weeks that will also play a role in the change to sustained colder-than-normal weather in coming weeks for much of the eastern half of the nation.  Finally, low solar activity has been well-correlated with “high-latitude blocking” and that appears to be part of the overall pattern change in coming weeks. This unfolding cold and stormy weather pattern could very well include some extreme cold and the transition this upcoming weekend to some very cold air - the coldest so far this season - looks like it may be accompanied by a major storm along the eastern seaboard with significant rain, ice and/or snow.

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12:30 PM Friday | ***Weekend accumulating snow for the Mid-Atlantic region***

Paul Dorian

Accumulating snow is falling today in the Colorado Rockies and this storm system will spread snow this weekend from the central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic.  Low pressure will be located over Oklahoma early tomorrow and generally head in an eastward direction towards the Tennessee Valley, and ultimately, will transfer its energy to the coastal region of North Carolina.  Snow will break out early Saturday in the central Mississippi Valley and then advance eastward to the Ohio Valley by mid-day and to the Mid-Atlantic region during the late PM hours.  On Sunday, as low pressure takes over at the North Carolina coastline, snow will wind down from northwest-to-southeast and it’ll last the longest in areas south of the PA/MD border.  Heaviest amounts of snow during this upcoming weekend event in the Mid-Atlantic region are likely to take place in parts of Virginia, Maryland, Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey.

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2:00 PM | ***Weekend accumulating snow for much of the Mid-Atlantic region...looks like a prolonged event for some***

Paul Dorian

Accumulating snow continues to be a threat for the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region with signs pointing to heavier amounts during this event in areas to the south of the PA/MD border.  Low pressure will pull out of the southern US on Saturday and head towards the Tennessee Valley before ultimately winding up near the Outer Banks of North Carolina by late Sunday.  Snow will break out on Saturday in the central Mississippi Valley and then push eastward to the Ohio Valley and then to the Mid-Atlantic region during the PM hours.  On Sunday, as low pressure heads towards the North Carolina coastline, snow will continue in the Mid-Atlantic region with the heaviest amounts likely across Virginia, Maryland, Delmarva Peninsula and perhaps southern New Jersey.

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12:15 PM | **Strong cold front arrives late this evening…powerful winds on Wednesday and Thursday…weekend snow threat continues**

Paul Dorian

The last couple of weeks were well above-normal in the eastern half of the nation, but this week will be a lot different with progressively colder conditions.  In addition, winds will become quite a factor as they will become very strong on Wednesday and Thursday with gusts to 50 mph possible in the DC-to-Philly-NYC corridor.  As far as precipitation is concerned, a strong and active cold front will arrive later this evening with occasional rain showers and there can be a rumble of thunder.  Looking ahead, snow continues to be a threat for the weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region.  The chances for significant snow this weekend in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor will ride on the timing of the phasing together of waves of energy in the northern and southern jet streams.  Early indications suggest the phasing together of these two systems may not occur until they’re both offshore which would reduce chances for important snow accumulations in the I-95 corridor; however, it is way too early to write off a significant snowfall for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  

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1:50 PM | **A quick burst of snow possible this afternoon, frozen precipitation later tonight north of the PA/MD border, powerful mid-week winds, and possible weekend snow**

Paul Dorian

The last couple of weeks were well above-normal in the eastern half of the nation, but this week will be a lot different with noticeably colder conditions.  In addition, winds will become quite a factor as they will become quite strong on Wednesday and Thursday with gusts to 50 mph likely in the DC-to-Philly-NYC corridor.  As far as precipitation is concerned, a quick burst of snow is possible this afternoon and frozen precipitation is a threat later tonight; primarily, in areas to the north of the PA/MD border.  Looking ahead, snow is on the table this weekend in the Mid-Atlantic region as a storm tries to get going near the eastern seaboard.  

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2:15 PM | *Active weather pattern continues into the new year with two systems to monitor for next week*

Paul Dorian

As the eastern US suffers through yet another soaking rain event to close out this shortened work week, seeds are already being sown for another rain event early next week as this active weather pattern looks like it will continue right into the new year.  Today’s system plunged into the Southwest US earlier this week and is now headed towards the Great Lakes region and well to the west of the I-95 corridor.  Given this well inland track, warmer air has surged northward along the eastern seaboard resulting in plain rain around here and it looks like there may be a repeat performance by the atmosphere early next week. 

On Monday, strong energy in the upper atmosphere will pull out of the Southwest US and head towards the eastern Great Lakes - once again keeping the east coast in the warm sector with plain rain likely from later Monday into early Tuesday.  Colder air will then filter into the Mid-Atlantic region at mid-week at the same time another strong wave of energy drops into the Southwest US.  It is still unclear and many days away, but there is a chance that this system may end up taking more of a southern track late next week which would make it a bit trickier in terms of rain versus snow in the Mid-Atlantic region; however, cold air will likely only be marginal.

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1:55 PM | *Active weather pattern continues right into the new year*

Paul Dorian

Another rain event will get underway later tonight in the Mid-Atlantic region as a strong storm begins to lift northeast from the central Plains towards the Great Lakes.  As the storm moves to the west of here on Friday, warmer air will surge up the Atlantic seaboard and temperatures may reach the 60 degree mark in parts of the I-95 corridor. Another low pressure system threatens for Sunday, but it is likely to stay just to the south of here as we close out the weekend.  Yet another low pressure system will likely impact the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and Monday night and with an expected track again to the west of here, it is most likely going to result in plain rain.  Finally, by the middle of next week, there will be cold air nudging its way southeastward across the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley at the same time there will be plenty of moisture in the southeastern US.  It is too early to say if the cold from the northwest and the moisture from the southeast will meet up over the Mid-Atlantic region, but it’ll be something to monitor in coming days as this active pattern continues right into 2019.

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10:30 AM | **The quiet before the storm…major storm to bring heavy rain, powerful winds, possible drenching thunderstorms, and a feeling of spring to much of the eastern third of the nation**

Paul Dorian

Another significant rain event will get underway later today as a powerful storm begins to lift northeast from the northern Gulf of Mexico coastal region.  This storm will not only bring us soaking rainfall – perhaps 2-3 inches with locally higher amounts – but also very strong wind gusts potentially past 50 mph.  In addition, as the storm moves northward on Friday to the west of the I-95 corridor, warmer air will surge up the Atlantic seaboard and it’ll feel spring-like with temperatures climbing to 60+ degrees in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor.  Given the already well-saturated grounds, localized flooding is likely to become a real concern over the next 24-48 hours.

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11:15 AM | *Complex weekend storm system to bring the Mid-Atlantic region rain initially and then the real chance for a mixing with or changeover to snow and/or sleet*

Paul Dorian

A complex weather pattern is unfolding for the weekend that will feature multiple surface low pressure systems supported all weekend by the volatile combination of a deep and slow-moving wave of upper-level energy. As a result, the threat for precipitation will extend from late today into Sunday night and it is likely to come in two waves. The front end is likely to feature occasional plain rain in the Mid-Atlantic region from late today into early tomorrow night, but the back end forecast becomes a bit trickier for the period from late tomorrow night into Sunday night. Colder air will seep into the Mid-Atlantic region during the second half of the weekend and this could lead to a mix with or a changeover of the rain to snow and/or sleet; especially, in areas to the north and west of the big cities along the I-95 corridor.  Another cold shot will arrive late Monday following the departure of the complex weekend storm and NW winds will become quite strong by Monday night and early Tuesday as Arctic air floods the region.

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