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Blog

Weather forecasting, detailed weather analysis and climate information

Filtering by Category: Medium Range Outlooks

10:50 AM | **The next week or so should be the worst stretch of heat and humidity this summer in the Northeast US**

Paul Dorian

Showers and embedded strong thunderstorms in the overnight hours were associated with the passage of a warm frontal system that has resulted in noticeably warmer and more humid air for the Mid-Atlantic region; especially, when compared to the last few comfortable cooler-than-normal days. Today’s temperatures will climb well into the 80’s and the humidity levels have climbed to uncomfortable levels and these harsh conditions will only intensify over coming days.  In fact, temperatures should easily reach the 90 degree mark for highs on Friday in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor and then climb well into the 90's on Saturday, Sunday and Monday - perhaps even a flirtation with the 100 degree mark in some spots on those three days.  This stretch of hot and humid weather will likely last for a week or so from its beginning on Friday. The good news is that this extended stretch of heat and humidity could very well be the worst of the summer in the Northeast US as there are signs for more comfortable weather conditions during the second half of July and during the month of August. 

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11:40 AM | *July likely to begin with strong upper-level ridging over the Northeast US, heat in the I-95 corridor, and the potential for tropical mischief*

Paul Dorian

In about ten days, signs point to strong upper-level ridging to be positioned over the Northeast US and this would likely result in above-normal temperatures for the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC-to-Boston corridor as the month of July gets underway.  In addition, with upper-level ridging centered over the Northeast US, the chances for tropical mischief will increase from the Caribbean Sea to the Gulf of Mexico.  This particular location of upper-level ridging this time of year often leads to low-level convergence in the Atlantic Basin and it promotes the westward movement of tropical waves.

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2:40 PM | *”Ring of cool” in the Atlantic Ocean and dry (Sahara Desert) air putting a damper on tropical activity so far in the Atlantic Basin*

Paul Dorian

The Atlantic Basin tropical season is still rather young having “officially” just begun a few weeks ago on June 1st, but there have been two factors so far that have suppressed activity and they may not let up anytime soon.  First, sea surface temperatures have been running at below-normal levels in the all-important "breeding grounds" region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean in the region extending from the west coast of Africa to the Caribbean Sea.  Second, there has been a persistent flow of dry air moving westward from the Sahara Desert region of Africa into this same "breeding grounds" region of the tropical Atlantic Ocean.  Both of these factors tend to inhibit the formation of tropical storms or the intensification of storms that actually do manage to form.

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11:35 AM | **Hottest day of the year so far likely coming on Monday for DC, Philly, NYC**

Paul Dorian

So far this year, 90 degree days have been relatively few and far between in the I-95 corridor. The highest temperature of the year in Philly and DC actually came in early May with 91 degrees measured at Reagan National Airport (DCA) on May 2nd and 91 degrees at Philly Airport (PHL) on May 3rd.  These high temperature marks of the year should easily be surpassed on Monday, June 18th, with 95-100 degrees on the table from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC. The good news is that the excessive heat looks like it’ll be a one-day affair on Monday with somewhat cooler conditions likely on Tuesday and Wednesday.

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12:55 PM | *Yet another wet weekend coming to the I-95 corridor*

Paul Dorian

**An important note on the weather web site: there will be some big news tomorrow as Vencore Weather is moving to a new home...stay tuned** 

Overview
It has been a hard year to cut the grass.  The I-95 corridor has had five weekends in a row with rain and this upcoming one will become the sixth. Tropical moisture is entrenched in the eastern US and multiple disturbances in the upper atmosphere will head our way from the Midwest over the next few days and “squeeze out” this abundant moisture in the atmosphere likely resulting in some tropical downpours.

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9:50 AM | **Tropical moisture riding northward from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico to likely result in significant rainfall around here next five days**

Paul Dorian

The grounds are already well saturated in the DC-to-Philly corridor after recent soaking rains and there is more significant rainfall on the way.  Tropical moisture is riding northward from the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and it is now firmly entrenched in the eastern third of the nation. Disturbances in the upper atmosphere will head our way from the Midwest over the next several days and tap into this abundant moisture and the result is likely to be downpours later this week and during the upcoming weekend.

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2:40 PM | *2018 Tropical and Mid-Atlantic Summertime Outlook*

Paul Dorian

The overall numbers are likely to be near normal this year in terms of the number of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin (includes the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico).  In a normal Atlantic Basin tropical season, there are about 12 named storms with 6 reaching hurricane status and only 2 or 3 actually reaching major status (i.e., category 3, 4 or 5).  Last year's tropical season was hyperactive with 17 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 majors and it followed an above-normal year in 2016.  The major factors involved with this year’s tropical outlook include the likely transition of La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean to El Nino conditions by later this summer.  The Atlantic Ocean is sending mixed signals in terms of the prospects for tropical activity this season with some sections featuring (unfavorable) colder-than-normal sea surface temperatures and others featuring (favorable) warmer-than-normal waters.  The sea surface temperature pattern in the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean makes the southern and eastern US somewhat vulnerable to what I like to call “home-grown” tropical hits during this upcoming tropical season.  

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12:25 PM | **Flash flooding to become an increasing concern with more significant rainfall on the way**

Paul Dorian

The grounds are already well saturated in the DC-to-Philly-to-NYC corridor after recent soaking rains and there is more significant rainfall on the way.  As a result, localized flash flooding will become an increasing concern over the next few days as we’ll continue to get hit by rounds of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, many spots in the I-95 corridor may receive 3-5 inches of rain between this afternoon and Saturday night and this is on top of all of the recent rainfall.  

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11:45 AM | **Severe weather threat late today/early tonight from DC-to-Philly-to-NYC…"training" of thunderstorms could result in localized flash flooding...very wet pattern continues into next week**

Paul Dorian

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, frequent lightning and even a few tornadoes are likely late today/early tonight in parts of the Mid-Atlantic region and Northeast US.  In addition to these particular weather threats, there are signs that “training” of thunderstorms may take place in some sections later tonight where multiple storms track over the same areas potentially leading to excessive rainfall amounts and localized significant flash flooding issues. Yesterday’s severe weather outbreak was focused in areas to the south of the PA/MD border, but today’s threat should be highest from eastern Pennsylvania to southern New England.  This overall very wet weather pattern looks like it will continue right into next week for much of the eastern third of the nation. 

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12:20 PM | *Very wet pattern setting up for the next week with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms…storms late today/early tonight and again late tomorrow can be on the strong-to-severe side*

Paul Dorian

There will not be a drought anytime soon in the Mid-Atlantic region or even in much of the eastern third of the nation as a very wet pattern is unfolding for the next week or so that will likely result in excessive amounts of rainfall.  There will be multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the next several days and some of the storms that occur can be on the strong-to-severe side.  In fact, there is a threat late today/early tonight for strong-to-severe thunderstorm activity in the DC-to-Philly corridor and then another threat exists for late tomorrow. The main weather threat from today's expected thunderstorm activity will be damaging wind gusts; especially, in areas south of the PA/MD border.  The frontal system that is contributing to a lot of the instability in this overall weather pattern will remain in close proximity through the upcoming weekend and into the early part of next week and, to add fuel to the fire, tropical moisture from the Southeast US will get involved.

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