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Weather forecasting and analysis, space and historic events, climate information

7:00 AM | The watch continues for potential historic weather event early next week

Paul Dorian

6-Day Forecast


Early morning fog and drizzle possible; otherwise, lots of clouds, warm, highs near 70 degrees


Mostly cloudy, mild, low 50’s


Lots of clouds, warm, maybe a shower, near 70

Saturday Night

Mostly cloudy, cool, maybe a couple of showers, upper 40’s


Cloudy, cooler, showers likely, upper 50’s


Cloudy, colder, threat for significant rain and damaging wind, near 50


Cloudy, cold, threat for more significant rain and damaging wind, upper 40’s


Mostly cloudy, cold, showers still possible, upper 40’s


Unfortunately, the overnight computer model runs continue to point to the possibility of an historic weather event in the Mid-Atlantic in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. In fact, some of the amazing extremely low atmospheric pressures put out by some of the models for early next week in the Mid-Atlantic are the lowest ever seen in the region. Our weather will remain calm and mild into the weekend, but then a deep upper level trough of low pressure with its associated Arctic air mass will approach from the west at the same time Hurricane Sandy moves northward in the western Atlantic. The two systems will interact by early next week and the result could be an historic weather event for the Mid-Atlantic region in the Monday/Tuesday time period. The deep upper level trough will act to “pull in” the tropical storm towards the Mid-Atlantic coast as the two features phase together and it will undergo tremendous intensification. The exact location of landfall is still in some disagreement amongst the many computer forecast models, but it appears more and more likely to be somewhere between the Delmarva Peninsula and Long Island, NY. The potential continues in the Mid-Atlantic region for hurricane-force winds, torrential rainfall with flooding, significant higher elevation accumulating snows in inland locations, and widespread power outages. While certainly not set in stone yet, it appears the timing for the storm may be as follows: winds and rains gradually pick up in intensity late Sunday into early Monday and then the brunt of the storm may occur later Monday through much of Tuesday.